'The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale' Preview

Matt Hamill vs. Jon Jones

The Breakdown: Two of the UFC’s most intriguing prospects lock horns in a fight that could send the winner down the fast track to title contention in the always stacked light heavyweight class. Intriguing as they may be, both Hamill and Jones are raw and rely mostly on their incredible wrestling talent and unconventional striking to cover up their tactical and technical shortcomings.

The similarities end there, however. Hamill is a classic amateur wrestler while Jones employs an improbable arsenal of throws that look like something out of Pancrase’s old-school days. A wrestling meet isn’t inevitable, though, as both fighters rely more on their striking, especially when matched against takedown-minded opponents.

That’s really what makes this fight so unpredictable: Hamill’s close-quarters boxing reminds me of the director’s cut of “Grizzly Man” while Jones throws everything from spinning back elbows to hook kicks as casually as he would flick a jab. The key difference is that Hamill’s pressing style plays perfectly into Jones’ hands; it will make his unusual strikes that much harder to pick up and open up opportunities for him to hit those gravity-defying throws.

The X-Factor: Although neither fighter has hit his apex, Hamill has been tested several times over. Meanwhile Jones remains a prodigious talent whose Octagon run has been easier than a day in Disney World. It’s not hard to look spectacular against the division’s bottom-feeders, and this fight is the sort of quantum leap in competition that has short-circuited many a prospect.

* * *

The Bottom Line: Hamill’s success is built entirely on his ability to smother opponents. That lack of versatility will be his undoing as Jones picks him apart from afar and proves more than his equal in the clinch. It won’t be an easy scalp for Jones, but he’ll take a clear-cut decision while adding a few more high points to his “SportsCenter”-ready highlight reel.