The Breakdown: WEC 38 'Varner vs. Cerrone'

Urijah Faber vs. Jens Pulver

Power Ratings

Faber
Striking : 2.5
Grappling : 3.5
Submissions : 3.0
Experience : 2.5
Total : 2.9

Pulver
Striking : 3.5
Grappling : 2.0
Submissions : 1.5
Experience : 5.0
Total : 3.0

The rematch between the former WEC featherweight champion and the first-ever UFC lightweight titleholder makes perfect sense from a business perspective after their quality first meeting last summer. However, it seems shallow, like a potential fourth encounter between Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture or Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski.

The early candidate and obvious choice as the next opponent for “The California Kid” was up-and-coming Brazilian star Jose Aldo. That bout would have guaranteed fireworks inside the cage. However, the thought of Faber (21-2) potentially suffering back-to-back defeats proved too scary a proposition for new WEC matchmaker Sean Shelby.

Here, Pulver (22-10-1) will be backed into a corner in which another loss could mean the end of the 34-year-old’s eventful career. “Little Evil” has dropped four out of his last five fights and was finished inside the first two rounds in three of those losses. On the other hand, it has often been said that he manages to produce some of his best performances when under pressure.

Prediction: The question is whether Pulver has the chin, durability and desire to survive another three grueling rounds with a younger, more athletic opponent. Faber responded to his last loss by going on an impressive 13-fight winning streak that saw him climb up the pound-for-pound rankings. While it’s doubtful he can repeat that level of success, count on another win against Pulver, this time by second-round stoppage due to strikes.

Danillo Villefort vs. Mike Campbell

Power Ratings

Villefort
Striking : 1.5
Grappling : 4.0
Submissions : 3.0
Experience : 2.0
Total : 2.6

Campbell
Striking : 2.5
Grappling : 1.5
Submissions : 1.5
Experience : 1.5
Total : 1.8

In a classic striker-versus-grappler battle, American Top Team’s Villefort (8-2) will take on a powerful rookie knockout artist in Campbell. A second stringer in his weight class at ATT behind standouts like Thiago Alves and Roan Carneiro, Villefort remains one of the most accomplished ground fighters in the Sunshine State, as he holds a black belt in both judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He will drop down to welterweight for the first time for his WEC debut.

A short and stocky slugger, Campbell (4-0) comes from the power lifting world, so it should come as no surprise to anyone that he has solid one-punch knockout power in both hands. His previous fights in local New England events have resembled cat-and-mouse games more than professional MMA fights in that he was oppressively superior to his competition. However, he has shown an alarming tendency not to finish his fights early, waiting for the more spectacular knockout on the feet.

Prediction: They say eight out of 10 MMA fights eventually go to the ground. Once this one does, Campbell -- who has looked spectacular on the feet in his previous fights -- will be in deep water. With less than four years of MMA training, he will be easy prey for an accomplished grappler like Villefort.

Jose Aldo vs. Rolando Perez

Power Ratings

Aldo
Striking : 3.0
Grappling : 4.0
Submissions : 2.5
Experience : 2.0
Total : 2.9

Perez
Striking : 2.0
Grappling : 2.5
Submissions : 2.0
Experience : 2.0
Total : 2.1

What could have been the best fight on the card fell apart when Amazonas fighter and four-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion Fredson Paixao pulled out of his bout with Aldo because of a contract dispute. Rumors have it that the 29-year-old Paixao has received a significantly better offer to take part in either the Dream or Sengoku featherweight tournament, both of which are due to start this spring.

A local muay Thai and submission fighter, Perez (4-1-1) -- who trains with Brandon Vera, the Ribeiro brothers and WEC veteran Dominic Cruz at Alliance Training Center in Chula Vista, Calif. -- replaces Paixao on short notice. With only six bouts under his belt, Perez will take on a world-ranked featherweight after just three weeks of preparation.

Aldo (12-1) -- a teammate of UFC middleweight contender Thales Leites and featherweight King of Pancrase Marlon Sandro at the underrated Nova União camp -- is one of the fastest rising and most promising young up-and-comers in MMA. Aldo has fought for Shooto Brazil, Meca and Jungle Fight, as well as in England and Japan, prior to his engagement with the WEC. His only loss came against the more experienced Luciano Azevedo in one of the best fights of 2005.

Prediction: Aldo is a champion in the making and has all the tools to go far in this sport. Fighting since 2004 and still only 22 years old, the sky appears to be the limit for one of the top students of legendary BJJ teacher Andre Pederneiras. While fans will certainly hope for a competitive fight, it’s more likely that Perez will get TKO’d in the second round, if not sooner.