TUF 9 Finale Preview: The Prelims

Melvin Guillard vs. Gleison Tibau

The Breakdown: The broken record keeps playing as Guillard gets another UFC reboot, but this time around it will come against the ginormous one, Gleison Tibau. Not good news for the mouth of the south, as Guillard’s physical talent vanishes whenever a jiu-jitsu black belt comes within 20 feet of him and Tibau is as dominating as it gets on the mats. It’s always hard to count out Guillard’s unbelievable upside because you’re always hoping he puts it all together, but at this point, it’s painfully obvious that he is a prime example of the difference between being talented and being a talented fighter.

The X Factor: If nothing else, Guillard has the clobberin’ time routine down pact and Tibau’s work on the feet hardly lives up to his reputation on the mat. Keeping this fight on the feet will be a challenge for Guillard. He’ll give up both size and skill to Tibau, but his whole game is about landing the one shot he needs to turn a fight into target practice. As always, Guillard is as live an opponent as you’ll find, but just how much that matters come fight time depends on two many variables to make him a favorite.

The Bottom Line: Guillard’s only hope will turn into his undoing, as he tries to storm Tibau from the opening bell only to end up charging into a Tibau takedown. From there, it’ll be a jiu-jitsu clinic with Guillard getting the short end of the stick and Tibau beating the sense out of him with the long end of the stick. It won’t take long for Guillard to make a fatal mistake and Tibau to seize on it by shorting out Guillard’s synapses with a fight-ending guillotine choke.