Strikeforce ‘Houston’ Preview

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Tim Kennedy

After a proposed giant-sized middleweight title tournament predictably fell through, Strikeforce did the smart thing and put together their two best middleweights, Souza and Kennedy, in a fight to decide their next 185-pound champion. It’s a welcome bit of sanity from the matchmaking department, as this is probably the best middleweight fight Strikeforce has ever put on.

For Souza it’s certainly the fight that will decide whether he’s ready to become the supreme middleweight that so many envision him as. A perception due in large part to his sustained éclat in the grappling world, and that is undoubtedly the skill he must flex to beat Kennedy. That’s not to say Kennedy isn’t a good grappler in his own right, but a grappler of Souza’s caliber who can translate his game to MMA is a rare phenomenon.

What really complicates matters for Kennedy is that Souza’s judo background makes for slick takedowns, and his ironclad base has translated into natural ground-and-pound ability. Even if Kennedy does win the wrestling exchanges, he’ll still be stepping into the unquestioned domain of his opponent. For all the improvements he’s made since getting gamed on the mat by Jason “Marketing Plan” Miller, it’s hard to imagine him Rangering Up on someone like “Jacare.”

However, if Kennedy can win the wrestling exchanges by keeping the fight off the floor, this fight takes on a completely different dimension. While Souza has the natural athleticism to develop quality striking and has made strides in that area, the two times he got dinged in his MMA career he reacted like he got hit by the Cloverfield monster. A friable chin isn’t something that gets better with training, and Kennedy has the skills to take advantage of that inescapable chink in Souza’s armor.

Now that he’s free of his military commitments, Kennedy is primed to make leaps and bounds in his game. His combination of durability and cardio do pose problems for Souza. Considering he couldn’t stop Joey Villasenor, it becomes clear that Souza will have his fair share of issues trying to put Kennedy away. The more time Kennedy gets in this fight is just more time for him to jump all over an opening and test Souza’s will to win.

Still, tempting an underdog as Kennedy is, Souza’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu casts a long shadow on this fight. If Kennedy had a telephone pole jab or real kill-shot power he’d be my pick, but the truth is that grappling is his best look. He’ll be good enough to give Souza a tough fight, but it’ll still be “Jacare” who walks home with a win.