Lightweights
Edson Barboza (19-6) vs. Dan Hooker (17-7)ODDS: Hooker (-115), Barboza (-105)
The last year probably closed the door on his ever being a title challenger, but Barboza has still carved out a niche as an exciting gatekeeper for the divisional elite. It was a frustrating move up the ranks for Barboza, who, like a lot of fighters on this main card, was hurt by the UFC’s aggressive approach to matchmaking. The Brazilian debuted less than two years into his pro MMA career and was fighting tough veterans in short order; and while Barboza’s power kicking game did result in some amazing highlights, like two stoppages via leg kicks and an all-time great wheel kick knockout of Terry Etim, he also developed into a bit of a glass cannon who would implode as soon as the fight started turning against him. The last few years have seen Barboza round into form. In broad strokes, he is still the same fighter with the same general strengths and weaknesses, but he has refined a lot of his game and, most importantly, become someone who can fight through adversity. Unfortunately, he has needed to prove it in his last two fights. Barboza has always struggled against pressure, and Khabib Nurmagomedov and Kevin Lee spent their fights putting Barboza through hell with repeated takedowns and ground-and-pound. On the plus side, Barboza gets a step back in competition here, but that says more about the quality of Nurmagomedov and Lee than anything else. Hooker is still a tough out and one of the best rising prospects at 155 pounds.
Hooker’s evolution has been a nice surprise. At first, the Kiwi was one of many unremarkable regional talents the UFC has picked up over the last few years. The UFC touched down in Auckland, New Zealand, in 2014, and Hooker was one of the best local fighters available at the time. He won about as much as he lost whenever the UFC stopped in Oceania. However, once Hooker moved up to lightweight in 2017, everything finally started to click. At first, the main change was that Hooker was simply no longer a foot-slow featherweight. His fighting style was still somewhat of an unstructured mess, but no longer being at such a physical disadvantage meant Hooker could catch up to his opponents and score some finishes. In his last two fights, Hooker has completed the change from a slow, unathletic submission artist to a legitimately dangerous pressure striker, as he marched down Jim Miller and Gilbert Burns and finished them within minutes. Hooker is at the point where he should be in his prime, so this is his shot to enter the lightweight elite. However, even if he fails to do so, this has still been a breakthrough year where “The Hangman” reached heights that few expected.
It is fun whenever the UFC puts together one of these matchups, which pits all the physical advantages against all of the style advantages. Throughout his career, Barboza’s issue has been with fighters who pressure him. His response is to constantly circle, and if his opponent can cut off the cage and get him to move backwards, Barboza’s entire dynamic striking game starts to fall apart. In his last few fights, Hooker has looked capable of following such a route. At the same time, Hooker is completely outgunned here physically. Even with Hooker being the former featherweight, Barboza figures to be the quicker fighter and land the harder strikes, particularly those vicious leg kicks. This feels a lot like Barboza’s fight against Beneil Dariush in 2017, when Dariush -- also not a top athlete -- had a ton of success pressuring Barboza before eating a highlight-reel flying knee. This will probably follow a similar dynamic. Hooker should be able to win rounds and keep Barboza moving backwards, but there are going to be a few moments where Barboza unleashes something ridiculous that could easily catch Hooker cold. This is an even fight, but the call is to go with the more consistent style. The pick is Hooker via decision.
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