Preview: UFC on Fox 22 ‘VanZant vs. Waterson’

Welterweights

Sage Northcutt (8-1) vs. Mickey Gall (3-0)

THE MATCHUP: Let us be real here. Gall’s 3-0 record may look good on the surface, but it is essentially meaningless. He debuted against a debuting fighter, then beat another debuting fighter and then finally beat a really old and inexperienced debuting fighter. While it was fantastic promotion, Gall’s hunt for Phil Brooks, aka “CM Punk,” was little more than a series of exhibitions or smokers. What we can derive is that Gall has potential. He is aggressive without being too reckless; he fights to his strengths without shying away from the strengths of his opponent; and he has some real chops on the ground. Whether or not those skills remain effective against a better class of opponent remains to be seen.

Northcutt is a better class of opponent by virtue of his athleticism alone. Extremely fast and powerful, Northcutt is dexterous, too, and frequently surprises his opponents with the flexibility of his kicking and the quickness of his scrambling. Now there does exist a universe in which Northcutt’s transcendent athleticism is actually something of a disadvantage for him here. He is accustomed to dominating his opponents quickly and, as a result, has struggled on those occasions when the other body in the cage refuses to be beaten up. Northcutt sort of runs out of ideas when his opponent walks through his assaults and seems to become flustered and reckless as a result. If Gall can consistently pressure Northcutt, he could exploit those flaws.

Of course, the same could be said of Gall himself. What happens if Gall cannot pressure his opponent? What happens if he is pressured himself or led on a high-impact wild goose chase? Gall has faced even less pressure in his career than Northcutt and lacks the Texan’s crazy physical talents to fall back on.

THE ODDS: Gall (-140), Northcutt (+120)

THE PICK: Either Gall pressures Northcutt relentlessly, gasses him and wraps up a submission on the ground, or Northcutt picks apart Gall and stays one step ahead of him in the transitions. The fight is rife with unknown X-factors, but Northcutt has gained some of the valuable experience Gall lacks, and that gives him the edge. The pick is Northcutt by second-round TKO.

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