Bantamweights
Brian Kelleher (24-15) vs. Cody Gibson (19-10)Odds: Gibson (-205), Kelleher (+170)
Some excellent matchmaking here sees two veterans square off in what should be one of the most exciting fights of the night on paper. Kelleher's settled into a consistent niche for most of his UFC career, though it's hard to tell where the Long Islander stands in 2024. Already a seasoned vet by the time he hit the UFC in 2017, "Boom" settled in as both an entertaining kill-or-be-killed fighter and a gatekeeper to the bantamweight elite; nearly all of his UFC losses have come to someone who has had their moment in the sun as a potential title contender, while the bottom half of the roster had little answer for his well-rounded ability to bring violence. Yes, 2022 was one of the rougher years for Kelleher, as he got tough matchups against Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista and suffered the expected losses, then didn't get his usual chance at a rebound after suffering some career-threatening injury issues that kept him out of action until the end of 2023. And even that return fight is a bit hard to parse; Kelleher didn't look much the worse for wear physically against Cody Garbrandt, but suffered a quick knockout loss that both tracks with Kelleher's history of slow starts and raises some concerns given all the other issues surrounding his career. At any rate, if Kelleher can capture anything near his past form, this should be both a winnable fight and a barnburner against Gibson, who's looking for his first win since his return to the UFC.
Gibson had a solid but brief run with the UFC in 2014 and 2015 back when the promotion's roster management was much less forgiving, then stayed relevant on the regional scene before getting a spot on last year's season of “TUF.” Gibson wound up as the runner-up of the bantamweight bracket to fellow UFC alum Brad Katona, but still managed to be one of the highlights of the season as a pressure-heavy and all-action fighter that was able to drag some fun fights out of some potentially unexciting opponents. But despite his best efforts, a clear athletic ceiling held Gibson back against both Katona and Miles Johns, who were able to stay ahead in wars of attrition on the scorecards. That's also the read here, though there's the ever-present risk that Gibson can catch Kelleher early on; if that doesn't happen, Kelleher should be able to follow his usual blueprint of building momentum as the fight goes on, particularly with Gibson's aggressive style typically meaning that he eats a lot of his opponent's offense. The pick is Kelleher via decision.
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