Middleweights
Brad Tavares (20-9) vs. Jun Yong Park (17-6)Odds: Park (-185), Tavares (+154)
Tavares has been quietly consistent during his decade and a half on the UFC roster, but there is the worry that he's finally starting his late-career slide. Tavares toiled in obscurity on the prelims as a decision machine, but eventually settled in as a clear gatekeeper to the middleweight elite within a few years; Tavares was consistently durable, able to pump out offense and sneakily had some of the best takedown defense on the roster, a combination that would usually find some opening to keep the Hawaiian ahead on the scorecards. It might not have been a career filled with clear highs, but a look at Tavares' record shows a surprising lack of lows; even during the rare times Tavares got blown out, it was usually against a future champion like Robert Whittaker. But starting with a loss to Bruno Silva last year, it does seem like Tavares is starting to slip past his margin of error; he looked flat in coasting by a particularly poor version of Chris Weidman, and his February loss to Gregory Rodrigues was mostly one-way traffic, with Rodrigues finding a surprising amount of success with his wrestling. The matchmakers also haven't done him many favors here by pitting him against Park, who looks ready to step into Tavares' slot.
"The Iron Turtle" has been a fun and crafty fighter during his five years on the UFC roster; initially more of a pot-shotting striker, the Korean recently rode his wrestling and grappling game to a four-fight winning streak that included three submissions. The hope was that Park could then make the jump into the UFC's rankings, but a somewhat controversial loss to Andre Muniz in December served as a reminder of the holes in Park's game; at his core, he's still a fighter focused on giving his opponent the initiative and countering what comes, and opponents like Muniz can use that opportunity to get the jump on Park with a dedicated wrestling game. Admittedly, Park did well enough on the mat by reversing some positions and landing some ground-and-pound that most felt should've outweighed Muniz's control time, but it's still an issue that keeps coming up, including in Park's unsuccessful UFC debut against Anthony Hernandez. Of course, none of that is an issue here against Tavares, who's increasingly defined by his lack of initiative; it could be a bit tedious, but Park should be able to coast to a win as the much sharper fighter, particularly if Tavares' takedown defense is now betraying him. The pick is Park via decision.
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