Women's Bantamweights
Marion Reneau (9-7-1) vs. Miesha Tate (18-7)Odds: Tate (-140), Reneau (+120)
It's hard to tell what was a bigger surprise: Tate's sudden retirement at the tail end of 2016, or her unexpected comeback for this fight nearly five years later. After coming out on the clear losing end of her rivalry with Ronda Rousey, including an all-time great coaches' feud on their season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Tate was essentially left without a path to the title for as long as Rousey reigned over the division. But Tate kept putting in the work, earning gutsy win after win against her fellow contenders, and as soon as Holly Holm upended Rousey, Tate was in line for the next title shot. Tate's title win over Holm wound up being impressively inspirational stuff, as "Cupcake" snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with one last desperation takedown, finding her way to a submission win by choking Holm unconscious with just 90 seconds left in the fight. It was a wonderful moment, but one that isn't particularly well-remembered now: It was immediately overshadowed by Nate Diaz's win over Conor McGregor in the event’s main draw, and Tate was somehow out of the sport just a few months later. The obvious move would've been a Tate-Rousey trilogy fight, but with Rousey's future still in question at the time, the call was made to have Tate defend her title against top contender Amanda Nunes at UFC 200. After a series of disasters in the lead-up to UFC 200, Tate-Nunes got the late call to serve as the main event for what was theoretically one of the biggest UFC events of all time. In hindsight, the night ended with Nunes standing tall as champion feels right - after all, she's become the consensus greatest female fighter of all time in the five years since. But at the moment, she was still a relatively unproven talent, and it was absolutely shocking to watch her obliterate Tate, who was seemingly left without any answers once Nunes took over at the beginning of the fight. Tate then figured to rebound against Raquel Pennington at the UFC's debut in Madison Square Garden later in the year, but instead gave in a shockingly flat effort. Once again, Tate seemed to be taken out of the fight after Pennington had a few early moments of success, coasting to a clear decision loss and announcing her retirement during her post-fight interview. There weren't really any hints of this comeback: Tate had seemingly settled into some sort of executive role with One Championship on top of becoming a mother, so it'll be interesting to see what she brings to this fight against Reneau.
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Making this all even odder is the fact that this is slated to be the retirement fight for Reneau, who's nearly a decade older than the 34-year old Tate. The UFC actually deemed Reneau too old for the cast of the Rousey-Tate season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but she still made it to the UFC roster a little over a year later, becoming an instant contender with wins over Alexis Dufresne and Jessica Andrade. But a subsequent loss to Holm -- the fight that actually earned Holm her shot against Rousey -- exposed the main flaw in Reneau's game; while she's an outstanding athlete -- particularly for her age -- and technically well-schooled, she just doesn't apply those tools in any sort of consistent manner. She's still been able to run over athletically deficient opponents and scored a come-from-behind submission over Sara McMann, but her even more increased unwillingness to pull the trigger in recent years has meant that she's riding a streak of four straight losses, despite having her moments. Reneau's still dangerous, but her approach means that this all basically comes down to how Tate looks and approaches this fight. Tate is still among the best wrestlers in a division that hasn't evolved much since she left, and the heart that she showed at her peak allowed her to gut through the types of tough moments that Reneau figures to provide. Any version of Tate leading up to the Holm fight should take this, but Reneau's more than capable of locking on a submission or causing some damage if Tate gets careless or just plain looks worse than her old form. The pick is Tate via decision, but this is essentially a coin flip.
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