Preview: UFC on ESPN 21 Prelims

Lightweights

NR | Grant Dawson (16-1, 4-0 UFC) vs. NR | Leonardo Santos (18-3-1, 7-0-1 UFC)

ODDS: Dawson (-210), Santos (+175)

It felt a bit off when Santos won the second season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil.” The series is ostensibly designed to find the UFC’s next top young prospects, and Santos, while talented, was a well-established veteran well into his 20s. However, the situation has worked out as well as possible—in a way. On the plus side of the ledger, Santos is undefeated over the course of nearly eight years inside the Octagon and has some strong wins on his record, including a first-round knockout of Kevin Lee. For all his success and skill, Santos’ UFC career has not established much momentum, as due to injuries and general inactivity, he has only fought eight times over the course of those eight years. As a result, the UFC has never put its entire promotional weight behind Santos, instead leaving him to challenge rising prospects and mid-tier fighters on the prelims. As an example, Santos’ last fight came against overmatched UFC newcomer Roman Bogatov. He finds himself in the same slot again here, though Dawson is the type of blue-chip prospect that could make this fight interesting. It took Dawson about a year and a half to get his UFC career off the ground. He earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017 but wound up in drug-testing limbo due to the same “pulsing” issue that plagued Jon Jones. Since he has been fighting regularly, Dawson has managed to overwhelm opponents with a persistent wrestling and grappling game, even if his striking remains a clear work in progress. Thus far, Dawson’s biggest test inside the UFC has been the scale. Thanks to some weight misses and a generally brutal weight cut, this marks his promotional debut at lightweight. While Dawson has earned this shot, this figures to be his ceiling for the time being. Santos is the type of elite grappler that makes Dawson’s wrestling-heavy approach a terrible idea, and the Brazilian’s patient and accurate counterstriking looks like stylistic poison for the American’s willingness to ignore defense and let his strikes fly. At 41 years old, the worry is that the wheels could suddenly fall off for Santos, but this should be a clear win if he is anywhere near peak form. The pick is Santos via second-round knockout.

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