Preview: UFC on ESPN 10 ‘Eye vs. Calvillo’

Middleweights

Marvin Vettori (14-4-1) vs. Karl Roberson (9-2)

ODDS: Vettori (-220), Roberson (+180)

This was a fun middleweight bout when it was supposed to be part of the UFC’s recent stay in Jacksonville, Florida, but it now has some extra heat thanks to Marvin Vettori taking umbrage with Karl Roberson’s botched weight cut. Roberson was one of the first signees off Dana White’s Contender Series and looked like the typical flier who had not accomplished much but was capable of a quick knockout. That is the type of prospect the UFC has been willing to let sink or swim on the main roster, and to his credit, Roberson has clearly kept improving. A former kickboxer, “Baby K” is at his best on the feet, but he has also flashed some solid grappling skills when needed; against Darren Stewart and Roman Kopylov, Roberson managed to score finishes on the mat. That can work both ways—Wellington Turman nearly got the nod over Roberson due to his own commitment to making things a grind—but Roberson is certainly a prospect to watch and could make a statement here with a win over Vettori.

Italy’s Vettori has also done a good job of figuring out things over the course of his UFC career, and he looks poised to make a run up the middleweight ranks. A submission win over Alberto Emiliano Pereira remains the only finish in the Octagon for “The Italian Dream,” but he has gone from a relatively raw and formless fighter to an approach clearly based on constant pressure. His 2018 loss to Israel Adesanya will always be the one that got away—things had not quite clicked into place for either man just yet, and Vettori walked away with a split decision defeat—but he has rebounded with the two best performances of his career against Cezar Ferreira and Andrew Sanchez. Roberson and Vettori are both under-the-radar talents, so a win here is important for each fighter to make sure the other does not jump him in line.

Roberson is the more dangerous fighter and should be able to hit Vettori with some solid shots, but this looks like the Italian’s fight to lose. Roberson is at his best when he has a huge physical advantage over his opponent and can dictate the terms of the fight, and neither will probably happen here. Vettori is a horse of an athlete in his own right and has a pathologically aggressive approach. Vettori should constantly manage to move forward through whatever Roberson has to offer in order to return fire, and while he is inconsistent in actually applying his wrestling, that is also something upon which the Italian should be able to rely. The pick is Vettori via decision.

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