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Welterweights

Randy Brown (16-5, 10-5 UFC) vs. Wellington Turman (18-6, 3-4 UFC)

ODDS: Brown (-225), Turman (+190)

For better or for worse, Brown is still one of the more fascinating welterweights on the UFC roster. “Rude Boy” came to the UFC with a ton of physical potential back in 2016, owing to his 6-foot-3 frame and ability to finish opponents on the feet and the mat. Seven years later, Brown has done well to hone a lot of his individual skills, but he remains equal parts impressive and frustrating. There are flashes of brilliance, but Brown does not fight behind much of a consistent approach, trying a lot of ideas that can often be ill-advised. Even with those issues, Brown still wins a lot more than he loses, but he also keeps running into a clear ceiling against the upper reaches of the division. Surging prospect Jack Della Maddalena stuck to a focused gameplan and had little issue marching Brown down and scoring a quick finish in February. Brown is now long enough into his career that he is probably a finished product, but until his athleticism abandons him, there will always be the chance he turns into something more. Perhaps he will show some new wrinkles in this rebound opportunity. Turman has had a solid run of things in the last few years, even if the Brazilian’s performances have mostly been an exercise in frustration. “The Prodigy” has found some success when he can take over and turn a fight into a grind, but he is an uncomfortable striker who can also get taken out of his game if things start to go south. To his credit, Turman has stayed a bit more composed in his recent fights—and still somehow just 26 years old, he has some time to improve—but this seems like a rough matchup. Even if Brown does not fight the most efficient fight, he brings enough size and speed to the table that at least one of his ideas should cash in and do so in big fashion. The pick is Brown via second-round knockout.

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