Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio’

Women’s Strawweights

Joanne Calderwood (11-2) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (5-0)

THE MATCHUP: While it might have been nice for Calderwood to get a forgiving matchup after her loss to Jessica Andrade in September, this is still a pairing with profound implications in the burgeoning strawweight division. The UFC is clearly invested in Calvillo, and looking at her two UFC fights, it is no surprise. Calvillo has utilized a scramble-heavy grappling approach to net two submission wins in the promotion, and while her style is different to that of the typical Team Alpha Male fighter, it benefits from the same aggression and tenacity for which that camp has always been known. As a wrestler, Calvillo’s results are mixed: She has scored only two takedowns in the UFC and defended only 50 percent of the shots attempted against her. Nonetheless, she is perfectly at home on the ground and seems to be gaining confidence and skill with each fight.

Calderwood will be Calvillo’s sternest test on the feet to date. A muay Thai stylist, Calderwood employs an upright stance, from which she throws a dizzying variety of kicks. The teeps with which Calderwood repeatedly hurt Valerie Letourneau could be a valuable weapon against Calvillo, who prefers to box on the feet. Calderwood has also improved her own boxing. Both of her last two fights have seen her cutting angles, placing counterpunches and drastically increasing her output of jabs. While Calderwood would be well-advised to avoid tying up with Calvillo, she is also dangerous in the clinch. As her “Doctor Kneevil” moniker suggests, knees are her weapon of choice in close, and Calvillo’s crouching stance could make those a viable weapon.

However, Calvillo is not clueless on the feet. A boxing game built on the foundation of a dipping jab has developed rapidly in the UFC. Calvillo outstruck Pearl Gonzalez throughout much of their UFC 210 clash, using her signature jab to set up well-timed overhand rights and left hooks. As her confidence in her striking grows, so too does her power. Calvillo started off throwing arm punches, often pulling them before they could fully connect. Against Gonzalez, however, she was sitting down and stepping through, repeatedly snapping the taller fighter’s head back with accurate blows. Regardless, because Calvillo is not a pressure fighter, she will probably have a hard time employing these tactics against Calderwood, who will do everything in her power to maintain distance and pile on the kicks.

THE ODDS: Calvillo (-220), Calderwood (+180)

THE PICK: Ten months have elapsed since Calderwood’s loss to Andrade. The Scottish fighter was showing some nice improvements at the time, mostly in the realm of boxing technique, and we cannot know how much more her game has developed in the interim. With both of Calderwood’s losses coming via submission, Calvillo’s two rear-naked choke wins in the UFC must worry her. Calvillo may give Calderwood some opportunities if she agrees to a prolonged kickboxing match, but her submission wrestling is an advantage that cannot be overlooked. Whether it is Calderwood or Calvillo who ends up on top, the slick scrambling of the latter will win the day. Calvillo by second-round submission is the pick.

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