Featherweights
Alexander Hernandez (14-7) vs. Damon Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC)Odds: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)
What to make of Hernandez at featherweight? Hernandez was one of the UFC's big breakout fighters of 2018; then a lightweight, Hernandez debuted with a 42-second knockout of Beneil Dariush and a dominant decision victory over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, entering 2019 as a cocksure future title contender looking for a big win over Donald Cerrone. But Cerrone instead blew open all the defensive holes in Hernandez's game, scoring a second-round knockout that seemingly permanently broke something in Hernandez's approach to fighting. Hernandez's first post-Cerrone fight was a wild over-correction, an unwatchable win over Francisco Trinaldo where Hernandez showed almost no aggression, but a clear pattern emerged for the remainder of Hernandez's time at lightweight; he would still run over opposition that was overmatched from the jump, but everyone who survived the early going and applied some pressure would inevitably bring Hernandez to his breaking point. Hernandez then decided to fix his problems by cutting down to featherweight in 2022, but the UFC somewhat cruelly matched him up with Billy Quarantillo, whose entire game is built around surviving early danger and then breaking his opponents - which, unsurprisingly, is exactly how his fight with Hernandez played out. A one-off late-notice move back up to lightweight against Jim Miller was at least a solid showing, where Hernandez stayed patient and picked apart a slower and less powerful veteran, but it's unclear what to make of his return to 145 pounds against Bill Algeo last October; Algeo is another featherweight with a pace-heavy game that usually breaks opponents, and while Hernandez did well to survive for three rounds, he never really got anything going against Algeo during that time. There's still the potential for Hernandez to be a terror if he can ever balance aggression and patience, and it'd be nice if he could do that here, since Jackson is yet another featherweight that will look to break him through pace. After an unmemorable first UFC run as a raw prospect that saw him wash out of the promotion in 2016, Jackson put together a quietly successful regional resume before getting the call for a late-notice return in 2020. It was immediately apparent that Jackson's second UFC stint would go much better than the first; he survived a beating from Mirsad Bektic for the better part of two rounds before finding a third-round submission, signaling that Jackson was a much more dangerous vet capable of getting a win across the finish line despite some clear athletic disadvantages. Jackson's ceiling has been affirmed at this point, as dedicated knockout artists like Ilia Topuria and Dan Ige were able to blow him out of the water with little issue, but Jackson's aggressive and scrappy game guided him to a four-fight winning streak in between those losses, and an August war against Quarantillo was another excellent bit of business even in a loss. It wouldn't be a shock if Hernandez scored a knockout in short order here, as he's a horse of an athlete and Jackson tends to get himself going through early aggression, and there's also a chance that this is where Hernandez's patience finally pays off; it might take a lot of control-heavy wrestling to do so, but he does have a clear athleticism and strength advantage that he might be able to lean on for three rounds. But with Hernandez less and less willing to fight behind his own hot starts, it does seem like he's going to let Jackson work his way into this fight - and given that Jackson is a skilled grappler that could prove difficult to out-wrestle, Hernandez might just wind up finding himself without a clear safety valve against a fighter that keeps bringing the action. The pick is Jackson via third-round submission.
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Allen vs. Curtis
Hernandez vs. Jackson
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Bahamondes vs. Giagos
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