Preview: UFC Fight Night 213 Prelims

Heavyweights

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-8-1, 8-6 UFC) vs. Andrei Arlovski (34-20, 23-14 UFC)

ODDS: Rogerio de Lima (-225), Arlovski (+190)

Arlovski is still somehow chugging along as a relevant heavyweight in 2022. It has now been over 16 years since “The Pitbull” was UFC champion and over a decade since the first time Arlovski was essentially written off, losing three of four fights via first-round knockout. However, Arlovski’s chin recovered and so did his career, eventually earning his way back to the Octagon in 2014 after six years away, turning what figured to be a late-career victory lap into a legitimate charge towards a title shot. That run through the ranks eventually ended in quick and brutal fashion against Stipe Miocic, which in turn started a slide that sent Arlovski crashing back to earth. Arlovski timed his wins well enough to stay well-regarded, but the Miocic loss was the first of 10 losses in a 13-fight span. Then Arlovski just settled in as a gatekeeper to the Top 15, quietly winning six of his last seven by patiently outboxing the much more limited heavyweights trying to climb the ladder. Now 43 years old, the margins are getting as thin as ever—Jared Vanderaa and Jake Collier mixed enough pace and control that they each easily could have won what turned out to be split decision victories for Arlovski—but it is still a shock to see the Belarusian keeping things together this long. Rogerio de Lima is the next to step up to the plate, and “Pezao” has had his own surprising career progression. As a light heavyweight, Rogerio de Lima was near the top of the UFC ranks as far as shortest average fight time; an explosive athlete, the Brazilian would either score a quick knockout or completely implode while failing to do so, rarely making it to the second round. Upon his move up to heavyweight in 2018, he showed off one of the more unexpected stylistic pivots in recent memory, suddenly plying his trade as a control-heavy wrestler against Adam Wieczorek. Much heavier and softer, Rogerio de Lima has somehow managed to balance power and consistency in a shockingly effective fashion given his career as a light heavyweight; his last two fights have seen him blitz Ben Rothwell for a quick knockout and go three rounds against Blagoy Ivanov, fading after the first round but still doing enough late to make a case that he deserved to win the decision. Given how close Arlovski has come to a loss in his last two fights and how Rogerio de Lima brings some additional power to the proceedings, that is probably enough for the Brazilian to get the nod here, even if there is a decent chance the former champion just scrapes by once again. The pick is Rogerio de Lima via decision.

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