Lightweights
NR | Clay Guida (37-21, 17-15 UFC) vs. NR | Claudio Puelles (11-2, 4-1 UFC)BETUS ODDS: Guida (-115), Puelles (-115)
Now 40 years old, Guida is somehow still a viable commodity. It has now been well over a decade since “The Carpenter” made a name for himself with a high-paced style that marked him as one of the most reliably exciting figures in the sport, leveraging his durability to outwork opponents with wild striking and some strong wrestling. It is an approach that figured to lead to a sharp downfall at some point, but amazingly, that has not happened yet. Guida clearly is not what he once was, but that combination of durability, wrestling and an unbreakable will has still led him to win a lot more often than he has lost against a solid slate of competition. Guida’s last fight, a December win over Leonardo Santos, was an impressive throwback to his peak. Santos absolutely battered him early, which would have likely garnered a stoppage against an opponent without Guida’s reputation, only for the former Strikeforce champion to barely survive, charge back and score a second-round submission. One gets the feeling that Guida could somehow serve in a gatekeeper role for the next decade, and he continues that duty here against a surging Peruvian prospect. Puelles was something of an afterthought after his stint as runner-up on the third and final season “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America,” in part due to inactivity. “El Nino” had only two fights in the four years after his season-ending loss to Martin Bravo. However, it has become apparent at this point that Puelles is a standout grappler. Two wins on his current four-victory streak have come via kneebar, and he had an impressive showing in outworking Jordan Leavitt on the mat in June. Of course, the issue is everything else at the moment. Puelles is improving but still obviously finding his comfort on the feet, and more importantly, he does not appear to be the level of wrestler to reliably find a path to those potent submission skills. Throughout his career, Guida has been capable of diving directly into a fight-ending submission, so Puelles certainly has a chance, but otherwise, this looks like a fight where the veteran can dictate the terms of engagement and outpace the younger prospect over three rounds. He will likely have to survive a moment or two of danger, but the pick is Guida via decision.
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