Welterweights
#5 WW | Stephen Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC) vs. #10 WW | Belal Muhammad (19-3, 10-3 UFC)ODDS: Thompson (-250), Muhammad (+210)
This is a particularly crucial fight for Thompson, who needs a win to keep his window for championship contention open. Thompson came to the UFC with some hype back in 2012 thanks to his karate background, but a loss to Matt Brown seemed to slot him more as a curiosity than a contender going forward. Instead, that turned out to be near the beginning of a career turnaround for Brown, and Thompson soon followed him in charging towards title contention. By the time late 2016 rolled around, “Wonderboy” had flummoxed enough opponents and put together enough highlights to face Tyron Woodley for the welterweight title at the UFC’s debut in Madison Square Garden. Their first fight ended in a draw and had just enough big moments to stay exciting, but that set the table for a rematch that ranks among the worst fights in UFC history given the stakes. Each man’s style works best when the opponent leads, and rather than build off their first bout, both fighters just essentially shut down, with Woodley retaining his title in one of the most interminable encounters in recent memory. The performance already left Thompson with a long road back towards title contention, and after rebounding with a win over Jorge Masvidal, his title hopes seemed even further away after a two-fight skid. His loss to Darren Till was a staring match in the same vein as the Woodley bouts, while Anthony Pettis used one of his signature bursts of offense to pull off a stunning come-from-behind knockout. Nevertheless, Thompson persevered, earning wins over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal while letting his inactivity work for him, as Kamaru Usman won the title from Woodley and went about beating every other top contender. Heading into a fight with Gilbert Burns in July, Thompson seemed well-positioned as the top fresh contender for Usman if he walked away with a victory. Instead, Burns proved to be shockingly successful with a wrestling-heavy game plan that threw Thompson completely off of his game. The Brazilian earned a clear decision win and raised the question about whether or not Thompson, at 38 years old, had finally slowed down enough to fall back to the welterweight pack for good.
Muhammad serves as that litmus test for Thompson, as the Chicago native continues an impressive charge up the welterweight ranks. Muhammad was one of the better welterweight prospects available when the UFC picked him up in 2016, though there was some worry about how “Remember The Name” would fare inside the Octagon. He put together an intelligent and well-rounded approach that tended to build well over the course of his fights but could find himself losing on the margins against the more powerful athletes in the UFC’s 170-pound weight class. Those concerns seemed warranted early in Muhammad’s UFC career, as he lost his debut to Alan Jouban and got sparked by Luque on that aforementioned 2016 Madison Square Garden card. However, he found his footing as a consistent and versatile fighter. Muhammad can hold his own just about anywhere while setting a pace on his opponent, and that has led him to finding gaps against nearly all of his opposition in the years since. Geoff Neal has been the only opponent since 2016 to hand Muhammad an outright loss, though a March main event against Leon Edwards seemed headed that way until an eye poke turned the bout into a no contest. Muhammad got back in the win column by stifling Demian Maia’s wrestling-heavy approach, and he gets another veteran opponent with name value—albeit one with the complete opposite style—in this major opportunity against Thompson.
Thompson did look slower against Burns, but it remains unclear how much of that was due to the wrestling threat the Brazilian established early in the fight. While Muhammad is a strong opponent, a loss here would clearly establish that Thompson is no longer a relevant contender. Muhammad is a smart game planner for his fights, but he does not seem to have the style to wait out Thompson—it likely would not work anyway—or the type of quick closing speed to his wrestling that Burns managed to leverage into his win over “Wonderboy.” Muhammad might bring more to the table than some of Thompson’s more recent overmatched opponents, but this seems like another fight where the South Carolinian should be able to do the things that have made him successful, all while staying long and quick enough to pick apart his opponent from range and minimize danger. The pick is Thompson via decision.
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