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Welterweights
#14 WW | Sean Brady (14-0, 4-0 UFC) vs. #6 WW | Michael Chiesa (18-5, 11-5 UFC)ODDS: Brady (-157), Chiesa (+137)
Even with a loss in his most recent fight, Chiesa’s move up to welterweight has certainly paid off. Chiesa has been a sentimental favorite ever since his days on “The Ultimate Fighter” nearly a decade ago, and he put together a solid run at lightweight. However, it always felt like Chiesa was fighting an uphill battle. Even when “Maverick” was putting together some impressive winning streaks, it seemed like a game built mostly around finding rear-naked chokes would hit a clear ceiling. Indeed, one-sided losses to Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis left Chiesa without much of a path to lightweight glory. As a result, he announced a full-time move to welterweight and immediately dashed any worries that he would not be able to hang physically at 170 pounds. Chiesa has bulked up noticeably without the weight cut—to the point that he is now usually the bullying fighter inside the cage. Wins over Carlos Condit and Diego Sanchez were advantageous matchups against aging veterans, but Chiesa’s next two wins served as the big proof of concept for him at welterweight: Rafael dos Anjos and Neil Magny accomplished little against Chiesa’s bruising and aggressive grappling skills. Chiesa’s August bout against Vicente Luque seemed set to go a similar way, but he left himself open to a brabo choke that ended the fight. Perhaps viewed as a temporary setback, Chiesa quickly went about booking his next fight to try and score a rebound win. He will get a tough matchup against a top prospect in Brady.
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Philadelphia’s Brady was obviously a prospect to watch upon his UFC debut, but there was some worry about how he would fare upon hitting the Octagon. He is not particularly dynamic, but he has the type of well-rounded and measured style that figured to work best while building over five rounds. Thus far, Brady has had no issues during his time in the UFC. A February 2020 win over Ismail Naurdiev served as a breakout effort that put Brady on the track to something special, and he followed it with wins over Christian Aguilera and Jake Matthews that saw him impressively find finishes on the mat. At this point, Brady basically has nothing to prove in terms of having a high floor, so this fight with Chiesa should help answer a great deal about whether Brady is a Top 15 stalwart or a full-on potential title contender, at least in the short term. Brady could wind up stifling Chiesa and taking over from there, but this does seem like a fight that “Maverick” should win, if only because he figures to win any grappling battles. Brady is powerful and has shown much as a wrestler, but at this point, Chiesa has proven himself able to drown opponents in a way that should serve him well against everyone but the absolute welterweight elite. Brady should be able to get the better of things for as long as this fight is on the feet, but it is hard to say how effective he will be in doing so. While Chiesa’s striking defense is notably porous, he is long enough compared to the bricked-up Brady that he should be able to avoid getting hit with the hardest stuff in the former Cage Fury Fighting Championships titleholder’s arsenal. Brady has overachieved thus far, but the call is that he faces his first speed bump in this assignment. The pick is Chiesa via decision.
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