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Heavyweights
NR | Carlos Felipe (11-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. NR | Andrei Arlovski (31-20, 20-14 UFC)ODDS: Felipe (-115), Arlovski (-105)
Somehow, Arlovski is still a considerable hurdle in the UFC’s heavyweight division. It has now been over 15 years since “The Pit Bull” was the UFC’s heavyweight champion and over a decade since his career was essentially left for dead after a four-fight losing streak that included three brutal knockout losses. As Arlovski entered the globetrotting phase of his career, he somehow rediscovered his chin, surviving three rounds against Anthony Johnson as part of a successful run that earned him a surprising UFC comeback in 2014. What followed was even more of a shock. While none of the wins aged particularly well, Arlovski kicked off his return with four straight victories, staging a charge towards title contention that eventually ended with a quick knockout loss to Stipe Miocic. There have been some rough stretches in the years since—the Miocic loss resulted in a tailspin in which Arlovski only won two of 11 bouts—but it typically takes either some knockout power or wrestling ability to score a clean win over the Belarusian. Otherwise, he is more than content to consent to a slow-paced striking match that he has won much more often than he has lost. Since 2019, only the surging Tom Aspinall has managed to get past Arlovski, as he has otherwise been able to turn back fighters who figured to have speed and youth on their side, like Tanner Boser and Chase Sherman.
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Felipe is the next man up to try and upend Arlovski, as the Brazilian has rebounded from a rough start in the UFC to put together three straight wins. Felipe essentially had three lost years after the UFC initially signed him in 2017. He immediately failed a drug test and was released, only for the promotion to re-sign him once he served out his suspension. Felipe did not look particularly impressive in his UFC debut, as his pressure-heavy approach mostly saw him get picked apart at will and outwrestled by Sergey Spivak. While Felipe may not have the prettiest approach, “Boi” has been able to make it work lately through sheer dedication. He has the requisite level of heavyweight durability, along with a surprising amount of cardio, allowing him to keep pressing and win some entertaining wars by some narrow margins. Felipe is more pathologically aggressive than most of Arlovski’s recent opponents, so he might be able to get something done solely through pace and volume. With that said, this very much feels like too big of a step up in competition for the time being. For as effective as Felipe has been in pouring on offense, he has also given back most of those gains with his complete lack of defense against opponents much less practiced than Arlovski, who should find success against a blank defensive canvas. The pick is Arlovski via decision.
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