Middleweights
#14 MW | Kevin Holland (21-7, 8-4 UFC) vs. NR | Kyle Daukaus (10-2, 1-2 UFC)ODDS: Holland (-150), Daukaus (+130)
Holland was one of the UFC’s breakout fighters in 2020, as his approach to the sport was perfectly suited to the pandemic era of MMA. His willingness to provide running commentary during his fights proved quite entertaining, and he also kept up his reputation of being willing to step in wherever possible, racking up five fights over the course of just seven months. On top of that, Holland put together some impressive results, winning all five of those fights before capping the streak with a first-round knockout of Ronaldo Souza. However, for as well as 2020 went for the “Trailblazer,” 2021 has been a rude awakening. Given his first UFC main event, Holland’s come-what-may approach led him right into Derek Brunson’s wrestling, causing a one-sided loss to the surging veteran. Before Holland could even learn from that fight, his tendency to stay active worked against him: Just three weeks after the Brunson loss, Holland stepped in as a late replacement and suffered much the same fate against Marvin Vettori. Holland’s talkative approach works a lot better when he is winning, and he attempts to get back to those ways in a deceptively tough bout against Daukaus.
Daukaus has not had much in the way of results in his three UFC bouts, but that says more about the level of competition that he has faced than anything else. He probably should have earned a contract via his one-sided win on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019, but the UFC eventually corrected its mistake about a year later, as Daukaus stepped in on late notice for a June 2020 bout against Brendan Allen. That fight allowed Daukaus to show a lot of what he can bring to the table as an aggressive and high-paced fighter who can switch between a lot of different phases. The fight ended in a narrow Allen win, but it was a back-and-forth war that marked Daukaus as someone to watch. A rebound win came over Dustin Stoltzfus, which gave way to what looked to be a winnable fight against Phil Hawes, as Daukaus’ relentless style figured to wear on Hawes’ historically weak cardio. However, Daukaus had the misfortune of running into Hawes just as he has appeared to finally figure things out, leading to a game effort that never quite turned his way.
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This is an interesting fight, as Holland appears to be another fighter that Daukaus’ style can take exploit, even as he attempts to make up a clear gap in athleticism. Daukaus fought as high up as heavyweight as an amateur, which shows now in his days at 185 pounds. While he has a large frame for the division and can take a punch, his effectiveness can be dulled a bit by having particularly slow feet as he attempts to chase down his opponents. Usually, Daukaus’ size can help make up that gap, but Holland is an even longer fighter who should be able to pepper him from range. While Holland shows flashes of controlled striking performances, he just as often is willing to crash into his opponents in an attempt to make something happen. As a result, there should be a lot of wrestling and grappling exchanges that are hard to parse. Daukaus appears to be the heavier fighter but is not particularly controlling, and for as much as Holland gets taken down, he is surprisingly adept at finding his way back to his feet. Holland’s own loss to Allen shows where his approach could go wrong here—he played around with Allen so much on the ground that he eventually got caught in a submission—but Daukaus appears to be a steadier grappler rather than the type that can suddenly catch him in a submission. This figures to be a lot of Holland winning the battle on the feet, only to make a poor decision and get taken down before finding his way to his feet and starting the process anew. This should be a fun fight and a hard battle for both men, but the pick is for Holland to take the narrow decision.
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