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Heavyweights
#13 HW | Tom Aspinall (10-2, 3-0 UFC) vs. #14 HW | Sergey Spivak (13-2, 4-2 UFC)ODDS: Aspinall (-270), Spivak (+230)
Under-30 heavyweight prospects go at it in the co-main event, which does not seem like something that should be allowed. Liverpool’s Aspinall has become a top young heavyweight to watch in little over a year inside of the Octagon. Coming from a background in grappling, Aspinall pivoted to a brief boxing career, which he certainly leaned on after his return to mixed martial arts. The Brit needed to do little else than show his fast hands in his first four fights since his comeback, scoring stoppage finishes in 95 seconds or less each time out. However, none of those wins came against a particularly strong level of competition, so it was up to Andrei Arlovski—as it often is nowadays—to serve as Aspinall’s veteran litmus test in February. It was a mixed bag. Aspinall mostly looked good for the first round, but the second saw him start to fade a bit. To his credit, Aspinall seemed to feel the tide turning as much as anyone, at which point he suddenly broke out his wrestling and turned the fight back around in seconds, quickly scoring a rear-naked choke submission.
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That all sets up interestingly against Spivak, who steps in on late notice to try and continue a three-fight winning streak. Spivak’s pre-UFC resume was more interesting than most. If nothing else, he went the route of facing some well-traveled veterans instead of barely-qualified professionals. However, his promotional debut was not promising. Spivak was blasted by Walt Harris in 50 seconds and looked unprepared in the process. “The Polar Bear” rebounded surprisingly well, starting with an upset win over Tai Tuivasa that showed all the strengths of his game. If does not get knocked out, Spivak is a tireless wrestler and grappler with an impressive array of trips and throws. He can quickly hit a wall against better wrestlers—as he did against Marcin Tybura—or better athletes like Harris, but the Moldovan should be able to plug away in the heavyweight division for years to come, particularly given his young age. If Aspinall cannot find an early finish, Spivak should be able to drag the Englishman into deep waters, which, as suggested by his visibly tiring against Arlovski, could result in an upset. Expect Aspinall to clear the bar of having enough hand speed to shock Spivak in the early going and enough grappling skill to at least get back to hunting for a finish if “The Polar Bear” starts panicking for takedowns. The pick is Aspinall via first-round knockout.
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