Preview: UFC Fight Night 166 ‘Blaydes vs. Dos Santos’

Welterweights

Rafael dos Anjos (30-12) vs. Michael Chiesa (16-5)

ODDS: Dos Anjos (-270), Chiesa (+230)

Add Chiesa to the list of fighters who have been helped considerably by a move up in weight. A sentimental favorite going all the way back to his days on “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2012, Chiesa’s game has always added up to more than the sum of its parts. Armed with little else besides aggression, toughness and a focus on getting to his opponent’s back, “Maverick” still managed to win a lot more than he lost, including his submission victories over lightweight stalwarts like Jim Miller and Beneil Dariush. However, he eventually hit a clear ceiling. Kevin Lee simply provided too much grappling horsepower for Chiesa to handle, and Anthony Pettis managed to blow open the Washingtonian’s lack of striking defense. In response, Chiesa decided to move up to welterweight, and early returns have been promising. Chiesa’s aggressive grappling style was tailor-made to beat Carlos Condit, but the way he handled Diego Sanchez in July was legitimately impressive. Sanchez may be long past his prime, but he had managed to hold his own in grappling contests until Chiesa came along. Now, the real tests begin, as Chiesa gets a welterweight close to his prime in dos Anjos.

Dos Anjos enjoyed his own successful move to 170 pounds, even if it does feel like the former lightweight champ plateaued a tier below welterweight title contention. As a lightweight, dos Anjos took years to work his way up the ladder, but once everything clicked, it did so in impressive fashion. His title win over Pettis was an absolute mauling that provided the blueprint for most of the Roufusport star’s subsequent losses. That and his successful title defense against Donald Cerrone represent the platonic ideal of a dos Anjos fight, where the Brazilian can apply pressure early and often, leaving his opponents scrambling unsuccessfully for responses. Even with the move up to welterweight, the same style concerns that dogged dos Anjos at 155 pounds are once again present. For as damaging as dos Anjos’ pressure stylings can be, he reacts poorly against an opponent just as determined to move forward. Khabib Nurmagomedov’s rag-dolling of dos Anjos at lightweight is the clearest example of this, but against Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman, dos Anjos ceded ground and wound up falling out of the welterweight title picture as a result. His 2019 campaign saw dos Anjos flip the script a bit—Kevin Lee applied pressure at a pace he could not handle, eventually allowing dos Anjos to take over for a late win—but after getting outgunned by Leon Edwards in July, the Brazilian could use a win to prevent his falling further back to the pack.

This is a fascinating style matchup and one that should answer a ton of questions about Chiesa’s effectiveness in his new weight class. Again, one of the usual keys to beating dos Anjos is constant pressure; Chiesa certainly has that part down, but it remains an open question as to how much he will be able to do with it. It would be nice to know if Chiesa has improved his striking defense in the last year and a half—it was proven to still be bad in the Pettis fight—but his two bouts at welterweight became grappling matches early and often. This is also the first real test of Chiesa’s ability to control opponents with his wrestling at 170 pounds. Again, the performance against Sanchez was impressive, but dos Anjos figures to bring another level of poise and physicality. There is a chance that Chiesa takes this by smothering dos Anjos, making the former lightweight champion uncomfortable and perhaps even finding his neck, but there are enough questions about the American’s recent run that it is difficult not to just pick the more proven fighter. This is the clear standout bout on the card in terms of stakes and style, but the pick is for dos Anjos to land the more effective strikes when he can and pick up the decision.

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