Lightweights
Michael Johnson (19-14) vs. Steven Ray (22-9)ODDS: Johnson (-345), Ray (+285)
Johnson’s career has clearly plateaued at this point, but at least he has decided to return to the lightweight division after a cut to 145 pounds that did not make much sense. After reaching the final on Season 12 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Johnson was a perfectly fine lightweight -- until his coming out party against Joe Lauzon in 2013. Obviously positioned as a setup opponent in Lauzon’s hometown of Boston, Johnson instead spoiled the party with a strong boxing game that finally clicked into place, outmaneuvering Lauzon and showing off the hand speed and power that would soon become his calling cards. From there, Johnson quickly rose through the lightweight ranks to contender status ahead of his 2015 bout against Nate Diaz, which is an interesting fork in the road in retrospect. Johnson has also traditionally had difficulties keeping his calm once things do not go his way, and it was Diaz luring Johnson into a losing bout that set the stage for his win and subsequent rivalry with Conor McGregor. As for Johnson, he actually managed to rebound with a surprisingly brutal knockout of Dustin Poirier, but his confidence issues inside the cage eventually led him to break against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje, which in turn led to his cut to featherweight. It was not a disaster, as Johnson split four fights, but it also did not really accomplish anything. Johnson still had the same issues once fights turned against him, and moving down a division did little but neutralize the speed that was his best advantage at lightweight. After a knockout loss to Josh Emmett in March, “The Menace” moves back to 155 pounds and gets a bit of a soft re-entry against the struggling Ray.
It was only about two years ago that Ray was set up for a breakthrough at lightweight. Having won five of his six UFC bouts, “Braveheart” was featured in a prominent spot in his native Scotland against Paul Felder. However, Felder quickly got the win, and from there, things quickly went sour for Ray. For one, the UFC decided to make an example of Ray by essentially putting him on ice following the Felder loss. Ray had previously turned down a contract extension, so the promotion took its sweet time and made him sweat before eventually getting him back in the fold. Inside the cage, Ray’s performances haven't been particularly effective. He has developed into a much too passive fighter for his own good, relying on a willingness to counter his opponent. That got him a win over Jessin Ayari, but Kajan Johnson managed to frustrate Ray from the outside and Leonardo Santos completely sparked him with a counter of his own. There is still an effective fighter in there somewhere, but Ray badly needs to change his approach and secure a victory here if he wants to remain relevant.
This is Johnson’s fight to lose, even if the good news for Ray is that “The Menace” often finds a way to lose fights. This recent version of Ray should be willing to consent to a kickboxing match with Johnson, and the American’s power and hand speed should allow him to win almost every exchange. The particularly bad news for Ray? Even if he decides to press the action, it seems just as likely that Johnson knocks him out with a quick counter as does Ray finding his way to a win. Anyway, the likeliest scenario is that Ray does not give Johnson a ton with which to work and this just settles into a slow-paced striking match in which “The Ultimate Fighter 12” finalist shines. The pick is Johnson via decision.
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