Preview: UFC 291 ‘Poirier vs. Gaethje 2’

Light Heavyweights

#3 LHW | Jan Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) vs. #2 MW | Alex Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)

Pereira’s transition to mixed martial arts has gone swimmingly, as there is a solid chance that “Poatan” can wind up as a champion in two weight classes once all is said and done. Pereira’s signing with the UFC in 2021 was seemingly built around one idea: getting him enough wins to make him a credible contender for middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, a former kickboxing rival who was running out of fresh challengers. It worked perfectly. Pereira’s first two fights in the UFC were not particularly impressive, but after the Brazilian starched Sean Strickland in about two and a half minutes, the stage was set for a third fight with Adesanya. The consensus in kickboxing was that Adesanya proved himself to be the better fighter even as Pereira walked away with both wins, and history repeated itself in November. After four rounds of back-and-forth action that saw Adesanya score a near-finish early and remain ahead on the scorecards, Pereira once again pulled victory from defeat in the form of a fifth-round stoppage. Even if Pereira’s reign only lasted five months—an immediate rematch in April saw the dynamics reverse, with Adesanya scoring a knockout in a fight where the Brazilian was ahead—it is still a remarkable story. One of the most impressive things about Pereira’s run at middleweight was simply his ability to make the weight—he is a massive man who would not be out of place at heavyweight—so it is not a shock that, with the Adesanya feud now in the rearview mirror, he is moving up to light heavyweight, where Blachowicz makes for a stiff first test.

Blachowicz is his own shocking success story, though he took a much longer path to championship glory. A well-regarded signing in 2014, Blachowicz scored a knockout of Ilir Latifi in his UFC debut and then struggled from there. The Pole seemingly had all the tools to find success, but nothing ever fully clicked, in part thanks to Blachowicz’s cardio suddenly betraying him for reasons that still seem unclear. Things went poorly enough that a 2017 win over Devin Clark likely saved Blachowicz’s job, after which everything fell into place. Some improvements to Blachowicz’s striking game finally paid off, and all the other issues evaporated from there as he racked up win after win. Blachowicz did well enough that once Jon Jones vacated the light heavyweight title, he got the nod to face Dominick Reyes for the vacant belt. It was assumed to be a coronation for Reyes, who had barely lost to Jones a few months prior. Instead, Blachowicz scored the knockout win with little effort and then spoiled the conventional wisdom again a few months later, when Adesanya suddenly decided to move up and challenge for the 205-pound title, only to get turned back via one-sided decision. That figures to be the high-water mark for Blachowicz’s career, particularly after a flat performance saw him lose his title to Glover Teixeira late in 2021. His 2022 win over Aleksandar Rakic and draw against Magomed Ankalaev were better performances than the Teixeira loss but also showed that Blachowicz lost the little bit of sizzle that marked his best showings. Even so, he is still far from a walkover, particularly against a fighter who has as many questions as Pereira. The UFC did well to make sure that any worries about his takedown defense remained unanswered until the Adesanya fight was taken care of, and what little he has shown in that phase has not demonstrated cause for optimism. Blachowicz’s own fight against Adesanya is an obvious point of comparison here, and it will be interesting to see how much the former light heavyweight champ follows his approach there. Blachowicz did wind up outwrestling Adesanya handily by the championship rounds, but he spent the early parts of the fight happy to engage in a slow-paced kickboxing match in order to set things up in future rounds. That could prove to be a much more dangerous idea against Pereira, who is a much harder one-shot hitter than Adesanya and has the type of timing that could obliterate one of Blachowicz’s signature striking blitzes; and with Pereira a much more exploitable wrestler than his former opponent, it would behoove Blachowicz to make this an absolute grind. The bet is that Blachowicz does the smart thing and takes an ugly win, but a Pereira knockout at any point would not be a shock. The pick is Blachowicz via decision.

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Poirier vs. Gaethje
Blachowicz vs. Pereira
Thompson vs. Pereira
Green vs. Ferguson
Holland vs. Chiesa
The Prelims