UFC Flyweight Championship
Brandon Moreno (21-6-2) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (25-5)Odds: Moreno (-190), Pantoja (+160)
With the UFC's first title quadrilogy now firmly in the rearview mirror, it's time to see if Moreno can define his title reign on his own merits, rather than in the context of his rivalry with Deiveson Figueiredo. But either way, it's impressive that things have gotten this far, both for the viability of the men's flyweight division within the UFC and for Moreno himself, who's had a rollercoaster of a career over the last seven years. Moreno was an afterthought on his season of TUF, the lowest-seeded fighter on an all-flyweight season that got run over by favorite Alexandre Pantoja - but Moreno being eliminated early meant he was able to step in for a late-notice fight while the season was still airing, tapping out surging contender Louis Smolka in two and a half minutes and announcing himself as a prospect worth watching. Between his exciting style and his charisma, the UFC saw an opportunity to get in the Brandon Moreno business and make him one of the centerpieces of their push into Mexico, enough so that once Moreno strung together a few wins, he was tasked with headlining a card against Sergio Pettis in Mexico City. Pettis showed all the holes in Moreno's game to walk away with a clear decision win, and the UFC didn't do Moreno any favors on the rebound, matching him back up with Pantoja in his next fight. It was unsurprising when Pantoja walked away with another win over Moreno, but the real shock came when the UFC released Moreno from his contract afterwards, mostly thanks to the promotion intending to cull their 125-pound division entirely. But once the division was saved thanks to the efforts of Henry Cejudo, Moreno was back under contract less than a year later, just in time for "The Assassin Baby" to hit his stride. In late 2020, things aligned just right for Moreno to earn a title shot; himself and then-champ Figueiredo each won fights quickly on the same card, making both available to essentially save a card for the UFC three weeks later with a thrown-together headliner. What ensued was a five-round war that was one of the best fights of the year; with Figueiredo seemingly coming out slightly ahead - but thanks to a foul earlier in the fight, the decision came back a majority draw. That wound up being the first of four straight titles between the two, broken up only by a Moreno interim title bout against Kai Kara-France while Figueiredo was injured, that mostly served to show how evenly matched they were; as each fight got deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole of attempting to build off what the opponent had brought to the previous bout, they traded wins until the end result was Moreno coming out on top in January to seemingly end the rivalry for good. Now it's finally on to a fresh challenge for Moreno - in a way, as old foe Pantoja now gets to step into the challenger's circle after patiently waiting his turn.
Pantoja fell short on the aforementioned season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but from there settled in as one of the most exciting fighters in the flyweight division, showing the level of aggression expected from a man nicknamed "The Cannibal." Pantoja has always been highly skilled, particularly as a grappler, but those wild tendencies did come with the usual drawbacks in some of Pantoja's toughest fights; opponents willing to strap in and keep pace with the Brazilian could often wear him out, whether on the feet or through non-stop scrambles on the mat. A loss to Askar Askarov in 2020 does seem to have been a bit of a wake-up call, as Pantoja's found a more tempered level of aggression in his last few fights, though it's unclear how real those gains are against an opponent such as Moreno; Manel Kape was content to fight a slow-paced fight that allowed Pantoja to stay patient, Brandon Royval initiated a fast-paced fight himself that left Pantoja little choice but to keep up, and Pantoja's own blistering pace against Alex Perez was a clearly intentional - and successful - attempt to score a dynamic finish and make his top contender status undeniable. And that sets up an excellent pairing, particularly since Moreno is essentially a completely different fighter from their first two fights, only showing flashes of skills in their rematch that are now fully formed five years later. It'll also be interesting to see what approach Moreno takes here, now that he's free of having to make specific adjustments on top of specific adjustments in order to get past Figueiredo multiple times. In his win over Kara-France, Moreno showed a more aggressive style that didn't seem to pay much dividends up until the point that he blew the fight open for a finish; that idea would be a double-edged sword here, with the potential to wear Pantoja out by the championship rounds but also exposing Moreno to a huge amount of risk along the way in doing so. A more patient approach might be the way to go, even if it lets Pantoja hang around - Moreno seems indestructible enough that the risk of a title change is most likely to happen on the ground, and there's still the chance that the Brazilian burns himself out over the course of five rounds even if the fight never rises above a simmer. Pantoja might be Moreno's most dangerous opponent - Figueiredo aside - but everything comes back to the champion's cardio and durability giving him the clear advantage in any sort of fight; the pick is Moreno via decision.
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Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Moreno vs. Pantoja
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Turner vs. Hooker
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The Prelims