Lightweights
Drew Dober (24-11, 10-7 UFC) vs. Rafael Alves (20-10, 1-1 UFC)ODDS: Dober (-205), Alves (+175)
Left to his own devices, Dober is almost always good for an entertaining scrap - and this fight figures to be no exception. Dober had a slow and mostly unsuccessful start to his UFC career, but his 2016 win over Scott Holtzman was a sign that he could hang on the roster as a high-volume, low-power kickboxer. That reached a clear ceiling - particularly against opponents with strong wrestling and grappling, an issue for Dober throughout his entire career - until Dober developed some knockout power circa 2019, giving him the ability to make a charge towards the lightweight rankings. Dober's fallen just short of that goal thanks to losses to Islam Makhachev and Brad Riddell, but the Riddell fight kept up Dober's action bonafides - and that was before Dober's March win over Terrance McKinney, three minutes and change of absolute madness that saw Dober overcome a near-finish to charge back and score the win. For now, it looks like Dober is slotted in an action fighter's role, this time around with Alves as his dance partner. Already a decade into his pro career when he earned a UFC contract in 2020, Alves is the type of fighter whose game is held together entirely by his athleticism; the Brazilian is skilled, but has a disjointed approach based entirely around huge bursts of offense, usually ending in an attempt at his signature guillotine choke. His eventual UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov was an impressive showing, if only for the danger that Alves managed to present over the course of fifteen minutes, and "The Turn" made good on his style last time out, clamping on that guillotine for a flash submission of Marc Diakiese last November. That's basically the path to victory here against Dober, who's proven to essentially be indestructible but can be caught in a submission from time to time; a 2015 loss to Efrain Escudero via guillotine in under a minute looms large. But the bet is that Dober can survive whatever early onslaught comes his way and set a pace that can quickly wear Alves out and get the ball rolling towards a finish; the pick is Dober via second-round stoppage.
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