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UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship

C | Valentina Shevchenko (21-3, 10-2 UFC) vs. #3 WFLW | Lauren Murphy (15-4, 7-4 UFC)

ODDS: Shevchenko (-1450), Murphy (+950)

Shevchenko continues her reign as the UFC women’s flyweight champion, and all in all, it has worked out well. Shevchenko’s five-fight run at bantamweight was a bit odd. While obviously one of the best women in the division, she was stuck behind Amanda Nunes after two losses to the current champion. As an undersized fighter at 135 pounds, Shevchenko was often unable to rely on the clinch and wrestling game that has been the best part of her attack, instead relying on a patient and precise striking style that made her fights a bit boring. Shevchenko is still a cautious fighter by default since moving down to flyweight, but by combining her elite level of skill with her ability to be a physical force, Shevchenko has turned herself into a legitimately impressive fighter to watch. Shevchenko’s first title defense against Jessica Eye basically told the story. The champion never really pressed the issue, but Eye was overmatched enough that Shevchenko still found a highlight-reel head kick knockout in the second round. Shevchenko’s defense against Liz Carmouche showed that she can still have a truly interminable fight against an opponent willing to do absolutely nothing, but otherwise, the “Bullet” has mostly worked her way towards finishes and often looked like a star in the process. Jennifer Maia provided some hope for opponents going forward in her shot against Shevchenko in 2020, becoming the first flyweight to find some headway while trying to physically overwhelm the champion. That still ended in a clear Shevchenko win, and she followed it with a complete blowout of Jessica Andrade, who initially figured to be her toughest title defense to date.

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To that end, it would be a surprise if Murphy injected any drama into this fight. It is still an impressive story that Murphy worked her way towards getting to this spot. She overcame a rough life in her native Alaska to win the bantamweight title in Invicta Fighting Championship, which in turn earned her a run in the UFC that started off in quite frustrating fashion. Murphy easily could have won bouts against Carmouche and Sara McMann, but each fight went against her on the scorecards. She eventually nailed down her first UFC win over Kelly Faszholz, and things clicked shortly after her subsequent move down to flyweight. Formerly a one-dimensional grinder, Murphy developed enough power and technique behind her strikes to mix it up and gut out some narrow wins. Now riding a five-fight winning streak over two years, Murphy is certainly deserving of this shot. Even so, it is difficult to see what will work for her in this co-main event. Murphy’s best paths to victory still typically revolve around a grinding fight, but that is exactly where Shevchenko is at her most dangerous.

Murphy is an elite-tier tough human being, but this figures to be a lot of Shevchenko controlling the fight and putting herself in positions where she can pour on lots of damage. It would be a surprise if she finished Murphy with one blow, but it seems likely that she can eventually find a position where the referee has no choice but to step in. The pick is Shevchenko via fourth-round stoppage.

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