Lightweights
#8 LW | Dan Hooker (20-10, 10-6 UFC) vs. NR | Nasrat Haqparast (13-3, 5-2 UFC)ODDS: Hooker (-140), Haqparast (+120)
This is a huge spot for Haqparast, who has been equal parts promising and frustrating in recent years. Haqparast came into the UFC in 2017 as a high-ceiling prospect. Despite being just 22 years old, the Afghan-German already had a solid amount of experience and appeared to greatly improve from fight to fight. He lost that UFC debut to Marcin Held but still put in an impressive effort for a young talent against a tricky veteran; and when he followed that outing with a layered striking performance to turn back Marc Diakiese, the sky appeared to be the limit for Haqparast. Three years later, that curve of improvement has clearly flattened out, as Haqparast has retained his promise but mostly stagnated in the years since. Haqparast still has impressively fast hands, but a lot of his recent bouts have seen him fight down to the level of his competition. Given the track he was once on, one would hope that such a talent could easily dispose of seemingly overmatched opponents like Alexander Munoz and Rafa Garcia. However, Haqparast instead won those fights via decisions much closer than they needed to be. Haqparast’s January 2020 bout against Drew Dober figured to explain a lot about whether he had truly stagnated or simply did not feel pressed to act against weaker competition. Dober wound up scoring a quick knockout that left the questions about Haqparast still out in the ether. At any rate, he gets a significant jump in competition against Hooker, who is looking to rebound from a tough year-plus.
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New Zealand’s Hooker has pleasantly surprised throughout his UFC career. “The Hangman” was seemingly signed only to provide some local flavor on a 2014 card in Auckland, but he held his own as a middling featherweight before suddenly unlocking his potential at 155 pounds. Even with the move up to a higher weight class, Hooker is still longer and rangier than most of his opponents, which has allowed him to command distance quite well. Add in the Kiwi’s crafty submission game and some impressive durability, and Hooker enjoyed a surprisingly strong charge up to the Top 10 of the UFC's lightweight rankings. However, Hooker is not a plus athlete—a fact that has come back to bite him against the lightweight division’s faster fighters. A 2018 loss to Edson Barboza saw Hooker eat a horrific amount of damage before being stopped via attrition, and his last two bouts have seen him lose a war against Dustin Poirier before getting obliterated quickly by Michael Chandler. To that end, Haqparast has the level of hand speed that could serve as stylistic poison for Hooker once again, particularly if it turns out that he has just not been taking his other opponents seriously and comes in more locked in. Still, that is a bit of a leap to make without Haqparast showing it first. The pick is Hooker via decision.
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