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Welterweights
#4 WW | Stephen Thompson (16-4-1, 11-4-1 UFC) vs. #2 WW | Gilbert Burns (19-4, 12-4 UFC)Advertisement
Thompson’s welterweight championship hopes apparently cannot be stopped, as “Wonderboy” somehow finds himself firmly in the 170-pound title picture once again. Thompson came to the UFC with a considerable kickboxing background, but after an impressive debut win over Daniel Stittgen, it appeared that Thompson had been clearly exposed in a one-sided loss to Matt Brown in 2012. As it turns out, that was the beginning of Brown’s turn from journeyman to fringe title contender and the last loss Thompson would suffer for the next five years. Thompson’s karate-based style scored him a string of impressive knockouts, and while his June 2016 win over Rory MacDonald was a bit tedious, the victory was enough to give him top contender status against Tyron Woodley. Their first fight, which ended in a draw, had enough big moments to remain somewhat entertaining, but large swaths of both fights—including essentially the entirety of the rematch—had an absolutely horrible dynamic that also showed some flaws in Thompson’s approach. Woodley’s patient and counter-heavy style simply did not give Thompson much with which to work, and “Wonderboy” was just as reluctant to lead, particularly once the champion had some moments of success. Their first fight at least had some tension, but the second saw neither man learn much of anything from their previous encounter, outside of a renewed commitment to inaction. With Thompson on the losing end and in his mid-30s, the bout was bad enough that he figured to never get near another title shot again. Thompson did rebound with a clean win over Jorge Masvidal, but his next two-fight stretch seemingly officially closed the door on his contender status. A loss to Darren Till resulted in an interminable affair similar to the Woodley rematch, and Anthony Pettis managed to shock Thompson with a Superman punch for a sudden knockout. For all of Thompson’s struggles, a vast majority of his opponents still cannot deal with his style. Vicente Luque’s pressure led to a fun war that saw him eat most of the damage involved, and Geoff Neal’s headhunting ways led to another clean Thompson win over a well-regarded opponent. With Kamaru Usman quickly running out of fresh opposition, Thompson would find himself on the shortlist of possible next contenders with a win here, and he has the type of style that would make for an interesting dynamic. First, he has to get past Burns, who is looking to re-affirm his own status as a top contender.
Burns’ rise through the welterweight ranks was shockingly sudden, as it took the Brazilian less than 10 months to go from promising lightweight prospect to top contender at 170 pounds. “Durinho” immediately became one of the most decorated grapplers on the UFC roster upon making his debut in 2014, but his inconsistent striking made for some early struggles. Even as recently as 2018, Burns found himself getting quickly knocked out by Dan Hooker. After finding more success to the point that he had trouble finding willing opponents, Burns decided to step in on late notice for a welterweight bout against Alexey Kunchenko, and from there, it was off to the races. Possessing the requisite physicality to make a move up in weight work, Burns unlocked his potential thanks to a better gas tank, being able to throw more volume and generally have more aggression to his game. It also did not hurt that Burns’ striking finally clicked into place to an effective degree, and the easier weight cut allowed him to take late-notice fights and quickly move up the ladder. The Kunchenko bout was in August 2019, and by May 2020, Burns had racked up his fourth win at welterweight over Woodley. Burns was slated to make it five appearances in less than a year with a July title fight against Usman, but COVID-19 and injury issues moved his challenge back to February. Burns put in a good effort—he even had the champion in some danger early in the fight—but Usman eventually turned things around and firmly put a stamp on the fight with a third-round finish. It looks like Burns has a long road back to title contention, particularly for as long as Usman remains champion, but Thompson’s path shows that he could find his way back to contender status quicker than expected.
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At a certain level, Thompson dictates every one of his fights. His stance and use of range essentially leave it up to his opponent to play Thompson’s preferred game while trying to decipher the puzzle laid in front of them. Luque, a friend and teammate of Burns, is probably the best parallel in terms of how the Brazilian figures to apply pressure; Luque did have his moments of success between attacking Thompson’s legs and attempting to initiate exchanges. There are some ways where a slight tweak in the dynamic could result in Burns turning Luque’s hard-fought loss to a victory. For one thing, Burns has a clear speed advantage, so while he does not figure to bring any sort of shocking creativity to the table like Pettis, there is still the chance that he could catch Thompson in an exchange with something that “Wonderboy” just does not see coming. Then there is obviously the grappling and wrestling threat that Burns possesses. It has been a while since anyone tried to press a grappling-heavy game on Thompson, and Burns would still clearly be the most dangerous opponent on the mat that the South Carolinian has faced to date. Add in that Thompson is now 38 years old, and there is certainly the chance that even a minor amount of slippage allows Burns to turn things around towards a finish. In general, though, this appears to be Thompson’s fight to lose. Burns is the much more compact fighter, and closing the distance on Thompson could result in the Brazilian starting to flag if “Wonderboy” is able to consistently pick him apart. This is one of the more interesting tests available for each man, but the pick is Thompson via decision.
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