Welterweight
#10 | Vicente Luque (19-7-1, 12-3 UFC) vs. #7 | Tyron Woodley (19-6-1, 9-5-1 UFC)Woodley has always walked a bit of a tightrope with his fighting style, but it has still been a shock to see his career essentially fall off a cliff. Woodley is notorious for backing himself into the fence, at which point he makes his opponents pay as they come within range. It is a fairly simple and extremely negating approach, but it has managed to work thanks to Woodley’s combination of power, accuracy and athleticism. If Woodley cannot simply knock out his opponent with one massive shot, he has typically been able to take over with his wrestling and turn the situation into a grind. Woodley rode that style all the way to the UFC’s welterweight title, but after two and a half years as champion, he lost his belt to Kamaru Usman in the most disheartening fashion possible. Usman laid all the weaknesses in the two-time NCAA All-American wrestler’s style bare, closing the distance and simply overpowering him in wrestling exchanges, at which point Woodley seemed to sputter without much in the way of answers. Usman is a freakishly powerful wrestler, so the hope was that Woodley might look better against an opponent with some more strength parity, but 2020 just seemed to confirm that he is broken. Gilbert Burns nearly knocked out Woodley to start their fight, and the Ferguson, Missouri, native never gained any momentum thereafter. While his last loss to Colby Covington was not quite so terrible, it still saw Woodley get overwhelmed and look hesitant to pull the trigger against a fellow contender. Woodley’s days as a contender now seem to be done, so it is just a matter of seeing where his floor sits at this point in his career. Luque presents another tough challenge.
Stylistically, Luque is essentially the polar opposite of Woodley. Coming into the UFC mostly regarded as a submission specialist with a middling record, “The Silent Assassin” quickly developed a pressure striking game that has turned him into one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster. Luque simply commits to moving forward, at which point it is up to his opponents to answer his constant stream of offense; and if they decide to take the action to the mat, Luque can fall back on those venomous grappling chops and finish the fight there, as well. Luque’s commitment to action does come with some drawbacks, mainly his lack of defense. Given the UFC’s tendency to match him with other action fighters, Luque has had to recover from some tremendous amounts of damage to rack up his wins. His 2019 loss to Stephen Thompson, while resulting in another excellent war, did seem to put a clear ceiling on Luque’s approach. As long as Luque’s chin holds up, he will continue to be a must-watch competitor, and he now has enough cache that he will keep getting shots to move up the ladder.
If Woodley has anything left in the tank, he will get a chance to show it here. Unlike Usman, Burns and Covington, Luque is not a particularly smothering wrestler, so once he closes the distance, he will be playing with proverbial fire in terms of trying to outstrike Woodley on the feet. If this were the 2017-or-so version of Woodley, that would be a recipe for “The Chosen One” to end this fight with one big counter. However, at this point, Woodley is simply too gun-shy to trust. Add in that Luque has proven to be ridiculously durable, and the chances that Woodley can pull this out with a finish are very much outweighed by the chances that he simply gets overwhelmed in another uninspiring performance. The pick is Luque via decision.
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