Lightweights
#3 LW | Tony Ferguson (25-4, 15-2 UFC) vs. #7 LW | Charles Oliveira (29-8, 17-8 UFC)Ferguson is on the shortlist of unluckiest fighters in UFC history, at least in terms of matchmaking, as “El Cucuy” had to keep marching through every challenge put in front of him, only to be stuck one fight away from the title. A win over Rafael dos Anjos in 2016, Ferguson’s ninth in a row, would have locked up a title shot for most men, but it had the misfortune of coming just one week before Conor McGregor claimed his second belt and kept two divisions in limbo. Then, of course, came the UFC’s repeated attempts to book Ferguson in a bout for some manner of title against Khabib Nurmagomedov; those two were obviously on a collision course towards each other for years thanks to their respective winning streaks, only to have the bout fall through due to some injury or complications with one side or the other. That all resolved itself with Nurmagomedov claiming the lightweight title against Al Iaquinta in the wake of a Ferguson injury, which once again made the Californian the odd man out. While Nurmagomedov went on to big-money title defenses, Ferguson was left to take high-risk low-reward matches against tough veterans like Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone. Now, that has all been left behind. Nurmagomedov retired after his latest title defense over Justin Gaethje, the man who stopped Ferguson’s 12-fight winning streak in one-sided fashion. At the very least, it probably ended how Ferguson would have wanted, with him fighting back until he was too beaten and bloody for the referee to allow the battle to continue. No one yet knows if the loss has even affected him. After all, this is a man who seemingly recovered from a torn ACL through sheer force of will. At 36 years old and with a style that often involved fighting back from abuse, there is a chance that the fall is coming for Ferguson, but he will get a chance to put himself right back in the title picture against Oliveira.
For years, Oliveira was one of the clearest examples of how the UFC can ruin prospects by rushing them up the ranks. “Do Bronx” came into the UFC as a fresh-faced 20-year-old, and after flashy submission wins over Darren Elkins and Efrain Escudero, the Brazilian was thrown immediately into the fire against divisional stalwarts like Cerrone and Jim Miller. Oliveira lost both fights quickly, and while he retained his submission skills—he currently holds the UFC’s all-time record for submission victories—it completely destroyed his confidence. At a certain point, Oliveira’s willingness to cave in at the first sign of adversity became baked into his fights. Even after a four-fight winning streak turned his situation around, Oliveira lost to Max Holloway after claiming a phantom throat injury that still has not been entirely explained. Oliveira’s talent has always kept him a going concern, but the expectation was that his mental issues would prevent him from ever making any sort of legitimate championship run. Naturally, Oliveira suddenly turned a corner after everyone had written him off. Sometime around his early 2019 win over David Teymur, Oliveira suddenly showed off a newfound steeliness to his striking approach, accepting that he would be hit and displaying a willingness to keep charging forward and firing back in return. Combined with his submission wizardry, that has made Oliveira an absolute terror, as he is now on a run of seven straight wins. With a victory here, he may finally get his long-overdue chance at a title.
If Ferguson is in fact headed for a fall, this latest version of Oliveira can certainly make that happen with his aggression and ability to find a sudden finish. Even if Ferguson holds serve when compared to the last few years of his career, this figures to be yet another rough start for the former interim champ. Ferguson takes a while to find a rhythm for his wild offense and often finds himself getting cracked as a result. As long as the durability is still there, Ferguson should turn this around on pace, if nothing else. Thanks to how the Gaethje fight went, it is easy to forget what a buzzsaw Ferguson turned into once he got going against Pettis and Cerrone. As strange as it is to say, Oliveira may hold up better than both of those opponents in terms of durability. However, in what figures to be a hellish war of attrition, it is difficult not to favor Ferguson’s worrying level of mental toughness over someone with the checkered record of Oliveira. The pick is Ferguson via decision.
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