Women’s Flyweight Championship
Valentina Shevchenko (18-3) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (13-2)ODDS: Shevchenko (-1100), Chookagian (+700)
It has taken all of two title defenses to arrive at the point where there is no clear answer as to who will dethrone Shevchenko as UFC women’s flyweight champion. There has always been a weird duality to Shevchenko’s prominence: She has an extensive muay Thai background and is portrayed as a dominant killer, but in practice, she can be a somewhat tedious counter-heavy striker who is often at her best bulling around her opponents. It was essentially that grappling that cinched her bantamweight wins against Sarah Kaufman and Julianna Pena, while her title challenge against Amanda Nunes showed all the drawbacks of her striking style. Shevchenko and Nunes had met a year and a half prior in an interesting encounter; Nunes caused a ton of damage early but gassed badly in the process, allowing Shevchenko to take over the bout before the “Lioness” eked out the decision win. Unfortunately, that set up a terrible dynamic for the rematch. Nunes was obviously cautious in conserving her gas tank, and without much offense to which to respond, Shevchenko also did not do much of anything, coasting to an interminable decision loss. With the complete lack of desire for a trilogy fight, a cut down to flyweight was an obvious next move, and Shevchenko captured the title in short order by rag-dolling Priscila Cachoeira and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Shevchenko’s first title defense against Jessica Eye showed some hope that the new champion could finally cash in on her action type, but after winning that fight via scintillating head-kick knockout, it was back to the same, as she and Liz Carmouche combined for another fight where the winner did little and the loser did even less. Despite the inconsistent quality of her fights, there is no question that Shevchenko is the clear best flyweight the UFC has to offer, so now, it becomes a matter of each top contender stepping up to try and find a way to beat her.
Most of Chookagian’s career has not been exciting in its own right. A fellow former bantamweight, “Blonde Fighter” has mostly gotten by on an ersatz Holly Holm impression, favoring speed and volume from range to frustrate rather than damage her opponents. It was not inspiring, but it was effective, as her lone loss at 135 pounds was a split decision to Carmouche. Then came the cut to 125, and from there, it was more of the same. Chookagian won her first two bouts of 2018 rather handily, only to lose another split decision, this time to Eye. Things have evolved a bit over the last year, as Chookagian has finally decided to start sitting down on some punches, and her win over Jennifer Maia was quite clear as a result. However, Shevchenko is obviously a big step up in competition, and it will be interesting to see how Chookagian handles her toughest challenge yet.
In a way, it might be better for Chookagian to revert back to her old style, as even if she throws a ton of ineffective offense, it might be enough to steal the scorecards against an opponent who can be as frustratingly passive as Shevchenko. Either way, Chookagian throws enough offense that Shevchenko will have plenty to counter, and the American’s tall frame in particular might be an easy target for the body kicks the champion used so effectively against Eye. Chookagian planting her feet to throw power only means that Shevchenko has even better odds of getting her wrestling game—the big separator in this fight—rolling downhill. Shevchenko has had enough duds and Chookagian is a game enough opponent that one could envision a scenario in which the champion gives this one away. However, there is nowhere that the challenger has a clear advantage. The pick is Shevchenko via decision.
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