Welterweights
Anthony Pettis (22-8) vs. Nate Diaz (19-11)ODDS: Pettis (-125), Diaz (+105)
It can be said that 2016 was one of the most entertaining years in UFC history, and Diaz’s ascendance to full needle-mover played a huge part. Diaz was always an entertaining cult favorite, like his much more prominent older brother, but things -- namely Rafael dos Anjos’ foot -- broke just right for Diaz to step in and start a rivalry with Conor McGregor that made him one of the biggest stars in the sport. On a week and a half of build for UFC 196, Diaz and McGregor created absolute magic with their showy machismo, and things only got more out of control inside the cage, with one of the best fights of the year ending with Diaz scoring the upset win. The rematch five months later was one of the biggest events in MMA history, and after a narrow decision loss in an epic war, Diaz more or less vanished just as his star was shining brightest. The Diaz brothers have always been open about money being their main motivation for fighting, and with the huge business that came with the younger Diaz’s 2016 campaign, it was not a particular surprise that he would be willing to hold out unless something truly interesting came along. That looked less and less likely as time has gone on. A McGregor trilogy fight has always been in both men’s back pocket, but McGregor has had his own issues regarding his financial leverage and the UFC; and a Dustin Poirier fight in November flamed out almost as quickly as it was announced. For whatever reason, Diaz was apparently intrigued by the opportunity to fight Pettis just as “Showtime” became a welterweight contender, and the fans will be the beneficiaries.
Pettis’ last year-plus has resulted in a crazy rebound from what looked like the end of his relevance. Heading into 2015, Pettis looked like one of the future faces of the UFC. A 2011 loss to Clay Guida aside, he had spent the previous few years dominating his competition and putting together one of the best highlight reels in the history of the sport, particularly his “Showtime kick” against Benson Henderson, which remains an all-time MMA moment. No matter the opponent, Pettis always seemed to have some sort of ace in the hole that would give him a sudden victory. He won the UFC lightweight title by submitting the previously untappable Henderson with an armbar, then pulled out a sudden guillotine choke to net a comeback win over Gilbert Melendez in his first defense. Beyond that exciting fight style, Pettis had marketable good looks and an inspiring life story, so he was an obvious choice for the UFC to put its promotional weight behind, going so far as to infamously put the Milwaukee native on a series of Wheaties boxes. That coincided with things turning completely against Pettis. The aforementioned dos Anjos pressured and roughed up the Roufusport star on his way to a dominant decision win, and with his title gone, losses to Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza left Pettis looking for answers that he just did not seem to have. A brief cut to featherweight resulted in as many victories as weight misses, and after beating Jim Miller upon his return to 155 pounds, an injury-induced loss to Poirier created concern that Pettis’ durability was also beginning to fail him. Leading into his 2018 bout against Michael Chiesa, there was a lot of talk of Pettis trying to return to his old style to bring out the old “Showtime,” and while that is usually just chatter, it seems that getting out of his own head and deciding to flow with the fight has worked to a shockingly successful degree. He blew through Chiesa and then put on a war against Tony Ferguson, and a surprising move up to 170 pounds kicked off with a bang, as Pettis became the first man to finish Stephen Thompson, doing so in particularly brutal fashion. Thompson decided to end a round by hitting Pettis with a push kick, only for the former World Extreme Cagefighting champion to rebound off the cage and destroy “Wonderboy” with a Superman punch -- a reminder of the unique type of dynamic violence that only Pettis can bring. For someone whose career looked dead in the water less than two years ago, a win here would suddenly make Pettis a contender for a title shot in his latest division.
This should be ridiculous. The Diaz playbook is well-known, yet they still seem to draw opponent after opponent into their type of high-paced fight, where their durability, cardio and willingness to keep pressing forward -- all while talking immense amounts of trash -- cause the other fighter to eventually wilt. From the jump, Pettis should be a willing dance partner, especially after the rediscovery of his old form. Pettis should be able to hit the harder shots of the fight, but outside of Diaz’s surprising 2013 knockout loss to Josh Thomson, that has never mattered. “The Ultimate Fighter 5” winner should find a way to keep drowning Pettis with pace in order to win rounds, even if the former lightweight champ figures to be durable and skilled enough on the ground in his own right that he should not be in danger of a finish. The way to beat the Diaz brothers has typically been to pin them to the mat and force them to win via submission, so it would be an interesting gambit for Pettis to try and rely on his wrestling and own Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills to grind out a win. However, that does not seem to be a path in which Pettis has ever been particularly interested, so the expectation is three rounds of war that play right into Diaz’s hands. Diaz’s motivation is always a question, but frankly, he is at the point where if he was unmotivated, he probably would not even show up to fight. Assuming the Stockton, California, native shows up at his best, the pick is Diaz via decision, surely setting up something ridiculous down the road.
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