Interim Welterweight Championship:
Rafael dos Anjos (28-9) vs. Colby Covington (13-1)
Odds: Covington (-135), Dos Anjos (+115)
Whatever else may be said of Covington, he deserves a big matchup like the one he’s getting this weekend. His mouth may have helped him get there, but with an 8-1 record in the UFC and a five-fight winning streak in tow, “Chaos” has the resume to warrant what is essentially a number-one contender matchup. The fact that Endeavor still feels the need to put a little more gold on the poster is frustrating -- champ Tyron Woodley has been out just over ten months and defended his belt three times in the year prior -- but beside the point when it comes to this matchup.
The American is a former junior college national champion and Division I All-American wrestler, and that pedigree is the basis of his game. There are few in MMA who will gleefully grind for 15 minutes the way Covington chooses to. He doesn’t have a super-explosive shot, blast-doubling opponents off their feet, but he has a variety of moves and can chain-wrestle effectively. What is perhaps most frustrating to deal with is the fact that getting up from beneath him isn’t impossible, but he will just not let go. Covington is perfectly content to punch from a wrestling ride or maintain control and pressure with a rear waistlock. From there, he’ll knee, punch, or drag his prey to the floor again. Unlike traditional MMA grappling, Covington does not mind giving up dominant positions like mount in favor of half guard and rarely looks to sink his hooks in when he has the back. He’ll take a mercy-kill submission if his opponent is utterly spent and gives it to him, but he’s primarily concerned with is maintaining control. He will not allow opponents the opportunity to turn into his guard or slip out the back door if he can help it.
His striking was much maligned following his win over Maia, in which the BJJ champion boxed him up and bloodied him in the first. But a look back through his tape shows a competent, active striker. The southpaw likes to kick at range. He battered Maia’s lead calf and frequently throws a left high kick, though it rarely connects cleanly. Sometimes Covington’s naked leg kicks are there to countered, and he can get wide on his punches or waste energy with ineffectual jumping kicks. But he isn’t afraid to exchange in the pocket, and as you’d expect given his bread and butter, he follows basic combinations into his shot. Like his stylistic brother Gregor Gillespie, the window for capitalizing on his over-aggression and slipshod defense is small; Covington can shoot the moment things get too hot, but he often does so before then.
The former lightweight champion is more well-rounded than Covington, and you could make the argument that he has two elite skill sets to the American’s one. The Brazilian came up as an elite BJJ convert, but his muay Thai has become an even more integral part of his arsenal. As a hulking, aggressive lightweight, dos Anjos also showed off impressive wrestling of his own when he repeatedly grounded and pummeled Anthony Pettis to capture the gold. We have not seen the Brazilian use his wrestling and grappling much since. He took top position and eventually choked out Neil Magny, but the position was gifted to him by a Magny slip.
“RDA” is coming off one of the most impressive performances of his career, outlasting former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler in a thrilling contest. The Rafael Cordeiro pupil chopped down his fellow southpaw’s lead leg with calf kicks, worked his body with knees in extended clinch exchanges, stuck and moved brilliantly at range, and unleashed one of the most hellacious salvos of punches you will ever see when he got Lawler’s back to the fence. Dos Anjos was a pressure fighter at lightweight, but his aggression has abated some with his climb up the scale. In the battle of two pressure fighters, RDA acquiesced the forward movement to Lawler yet maintained his effectiveness, speaking to his completeness as a striker.
As multifaceted as their games are, who emerges with gold around his waist comes down to whether dos Anjos can fight off the takedowns and maintain space. The Brazilian will not want to spend nearly as much time in the clinch or with his back to the cage as he did in his last outing. Covington isn’t a huge welterweight, but one has to think he’ll have a slight advantage in the tie-ups due to his strength and wrestling chops. RDA will have a much more pronounced edge in striking at all ranges, with faster hands and feet, greater power and a superior ability to put shots together. What will really turn this fight, though, is the Brazilian’s cardio; he’ll be able to maintain a fast pace longer because of it. Covington’s willingness to come out with guns blazing depletes his reserves. He’ll have success mixing up his high-volume striking with his wrestling early but will begin to fade around the midpoint of the fight. Dos Anjos will take over and batter an increasingly desperate Covington down the stretch on his way to a decision or late TKO.
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