UFC Light Heavyweight Championship:
Daniel Cormier (19-1) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (15-1) ODDS: Cormier (-315), Oezdemir (+285)
ANALYSIS: By no means is this as simple as Oezdemir having a “puncher’s chance,” but in all reality, he has a puncher’s chance.
There is no way to dispute that the Swiss fighter has power in his hands. In a mere 70 seconds combined, Oedemir knocked out two top-10 talents in Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa. He did it in both cases while backpedaling, which at bare minimum is an indication of natural punching power and the ability to transfer force into his punches. However, he is facing a vastly better fighter whose stature simply does not jive with Oezdemir’s “Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” status in 2017.
There are a million natural reasons to want to go against Cormier here. He is 38 years old; he has settled into his more natural role as a broadcaster; and Alexander Gustafsson folded him in half over a year ago. I hear you, folks. However, what does that have to do with fighting Oezdemir?
Again, I am loathe to reduce an elite fighter’s chances to the mere “puncher’s chance,” especially when said fighter spent a whole calendar year proving people wrong. However, we are not even 12 months removed from Oezdemir’s UFC debut, albeit on late notice, where he should have lost a handy decision to Ovince St. Preux. Regardless of how you may have scored his bout with St. Preux, Oezdemir still allowed a collegiate linebacker to get inside of the clinch and to his waist time and time again. Now, less than a year later, he is facing a two-time Olympian and legitimate world-class wrestler who seeks to do the same thing. How does this go well?
Oezdemir may win a straight kickboxing match, but Cormier excels with his striking when he can threaten a takedown, move inside and throw hooks and uppercuts from short distance; this is the range in which Oezdemir normally excels. If the Henri Hooft understudy cannot succeed inside in the striking department against the champion, he may get fully washed out.
As mentioned, the American Kickboxing Academy’s team captain is going on 39 years old and this is MMA, so any short, counter Oezdemir right hook could mark the end of his reign. However, Cormier has taken assault from the aforementioned likes of Gustafssson and two encounters with all-galaxy smasher Anthony Johnson; any night could be the one your chin gives out, but “DC’s” track record makes it unlikely. Unless Oezdemir lands early and especially often, he will be deposited on the canvas and pounded out before the championship rounds.
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