Preview: UFC 218 ‘Holloway vs. Aldo 2’

Heavyweight

Francis Ngannou (10-1) vs. Alistair Overeem (43-15)

ODDS: Ngannou (-260), Overeem (+220)

ANALYSIS: In the modern UFC climate, even winning an interim title does not assure you of ever facing “the champion,” so it becomes difficult to call any fight a true title eliminator. Nonetheless, heavyweight ruler Stipe Miocic needs somebody to fight come 2018, and frankly, there is no heavyweight fight more appealing in the UFC than blue-chip prospect Ngannou and former title challenger Overeem.

Since Ngannou drilled former champ Andrei Arlovski in 92 seconds in January, fans have been feverishly fantasy matchmaking this fight; and it only intensified with Overeem’s subsequent wins over Mark Hunt and Fabricio Werdum. The dynamic is obvious. Ngannou is an elite athlete with devastating punching power but little experience and a questionable strength of schedule, while Overeem is a rare blend of physical monster and surgical technician, infamous for getting iced by sudden strikes at inopportune moments. However, since his defeats to Antonio Silva, Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell, Overeem has gone 7-1 in the UFC over the last three years, his lone loss coming to Miocic in his title fight -- a fight in which he had the champion badly hurt. His time at Jackson-Wink MMA has made him a more cautious fighter who manages his explosive bursts of offense and seems better able to withstand getting rocked when it happens.

Yet, it still happens. Miocic clobbered him during a fight in which he had a major upper hand; Hunt rocked him in close more than once; and Werdum nearly knocked him out in the third round of their rubber match. That covers just the last 15 months. Overeem’s recent strategic and stylistic changes have paid rich dividends, but he is still 37 and has been fighting professionally since the 1990s. It is going to be a massive problem if he gets tagged by Ngannou.

Ngannou is not just a heavy-hitting brute. He has a clever jab, can dictate range with heavy low kicks and can fight southpaw; and he will even have three inches of reach on Overeem. Though a full-out clinch battle with Overeem would be a bad idea, “The Predator” is a dangerous inside fighter, too, because of his ability to land short hooks on moving targets and deliver a wallop with his uppercut. Even if Overeem can technically finesse Ngannou in a standup battle, the Cameroonian’s power is a constant, ever-present threat.

The smartest tactic here would be for Overeem to work out of his well-worn crouch stance and come into the clinch as fast as possible. There, he can work his knees, tie up Ngannou’s hands and seek to put him on the mat, where the fledgling contender remains largely untested and where “The Demolition Man” has long been underrated, both as a submission threat and ground-and-pound stylist. Alas, even if Ngannou is a four-year pro and still largely an MMA neophyte, there is no guarantee Overeem wipes him out after one takedown. An escape to his feet, a referee standup or the end of a round could let him resume striking and clock the Dutchman in a fashion we have seen before.

There is a compelling case to be made for Overeem, and I think the betting line should be much closer. Overeem’s well-roundedness and steady improvements have been consistently overlooked, and we still have much to learn about Ngannou. Nonetheless, I cannot shake the image of Ngannou landing something big to make Overeem do the fish dance and then following up with accurate artillery. Ngannou by knockout in the first 10 minutes is the pick.

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