UFC Flyweight Championship
Demetrious Johnson (23-2-1) vs. Henry Cejudo (10-0)So far in his MMA career, Cejudo’s wrestling has served as a defensive tool more than an offensive one. He has not been taken down once in the UFC, and he has used the resultant time standing to ply his trade as a kickboxer. Cejudo is light on his feet and throws hard, quick strikes from both hands and both legs. He also possesses sound technique, throwing compact punches in combinations. As an inexperienced striker, however, Cejudo has yet to blend his defense and offense. When he attacks, he is open to be hit, and when he defends, he is not ready to counter. He has yet to face an opponent able to consistently press him, but the openings are there.
The champion, of course, is the finest fighter in the division, and he brings a remarkable stylistic flexibility to the table. Johnson can pressure, box or counter. He can wrestle, strike or submit. Most impressive is his ability to flit between these options at will. Johnson is very rarely rebuffed entirely. Instead, when a given technique does not work, he processes that information and turns it to his advantage. For example, when Johnson discovered that he could not drag John Dodson to the ground, he began using his single leg attempts to trap him against the fence, where he was able to chip away with strikes until Dodson was worn down enough to actually be taken down.
There is also the matter of athleticism. Cejudo is likely a bit stronger than Johnson and potentially harder hitting, but he has repeatedly struggled with the cut to 125 pounds. Whether or not his rapid-fire work rate can hold up in the championship rounds remains to be seen. Johnson’s stamina, on the other hand, is unquestionable. There is no fighter on the planet who can maintain such a high level of activity for round after round without a single sign of slowing down. That is always an advantage in Johnson’s favor, and it will likely remain so at UFC 197.
THE ODDS: Johnson (-395), Cejudo (+322)
THE PICK: Cejudo’s wrestling really does make this an interesting matchup. Johnson will not be able to take down the gold medalist in the early rounds, and he will struggle to beat him up in the clinch as he has done so often in the past. As a result, much of this fight will likely end up being contested at range. Johnson is not a perfect striker, but he is steadily improving and should be able to adapt to the clear ebb and flow of Cejudo’s kickboxing. Johnson will press when Cejudo pulls back and counter when he drives forward. The pick is Johnson by unanimous decision.
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