Carla Esparza is superb in transitions. | Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
UFC WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Carla Esparza (10-2, 1-0 UFC) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-0, 2-0 UFC)Esparza reminds me a great deal of Frankie Edgar at a similar point in his career. She is essentially an in-and-out, quick-paced fighter who relies on a mixture of constant movement and punching combinations at range and authoritative takedowns in tight. Rushing in with shift steps, she lands a lightning-quick two or three punches in sequence to the head and body and then exits on a sharp angle. Esparza is not an especially powerful puncher, but she has enough pop that her shots demand respect. Moreover, her high output and work to the body quickly wear down her opponents. As with Edgar, that constant movement and use of angles at range makes it difficult to defend her well-timed takedowns. Esparza might be small for the weight class, but she has tremendous drive when she gets in on the hips and finishes with real power. From top position, the champion is relentless, delivering a constant stream of hard shots with good posture and passing when the opportunity is there.
The best facet of Esparza’s game, however, lies in the transitions. If a takedown attempt fails, she immediately lets go and comes up high with punches and elbows. She excels at slipping in knees and punches when her opponents try to scramble back to their feet off a takedown and is often happy to let them do so to create opportunities to land her shots. That kind of fluidity in these momentary spaces is a special and rare gift, and it puts her on the cutting edge of MMA technique.
Jedrzejczyk is essentially a straightforward sprawl-and-brawler, but her power and technical skill make her highly effective. She works at a blistering pace on the feet, routinely throwing 15 or 20 strikes per minute and mixing up her slick punching combinations between the head and the body. Although Jedrzejczyk does her best work moving forward, she can work off her back foot nearly as well, with a strong repertoire of half-beat counters off parries and slips. Her jab is especially crisp, and she uses it to constantly measure her opponent and set a rhythm. While she rarely chooses to be in the clinch, preferring either the pocket or long striking distance, Jedrzejczyk is surprisingly strong and throws nice knees and elbows, especially on the breaks. Offensive wrestling is not Jedrzejczyk’s strong suit, but she is extremely difficult to take down, especially against the cage.
BETTING ODDS: Esparza (-160), Jedrzejczyk (+140)
THE PICK: This is a fantastic matchup, though I see Esparza as a bigger favorite than the betting odds indicate. If the champion stands in front of Jedrzejczyk for extended periods, the Pole will chew her up with vicious punching sequences, but that is not and never has been Esparza’s M.O. She has outstanding circular movement and an excellent command of angles, and I expect Esparza to dart in and out with combinations, get stuffed on her early takedown attempts and adjust by throwing hard punches and knees on failed shots. Once she has Jedrzejczyk confused and off-balance with the transitional offense, the takedowns will start to work, and Esparza will seal the deal with top control and ground strikes late. The pick is Esparza to retain her title by 49-46 decision.
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