Preview: UFC 182 ‘Jones vs. Cormier’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Donald Cerrone (25-6, 12-3 UFC) vs. Myles Jury (15-0, 6-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Nothing drives home the depth and quality of the lightweight division more than matchups like this, as action fighter Cerrone looks to run his winning streak to six in a row against the undefeated Jury in what might be a top-contender matchup. Cerrone won a thrilling decision over Eddie Alvarez in his most recent outing, while Jury knocked out the iron-jawed Takanori Gomi and easily beat Diego Sanchez over three rounds.

The version of Cerrone that beat up Alvarez was the best we have seen. The basis of his game -- diverse, powerful and fast muay Thai -- is the same, but it has grown consistently sharper in every single facet. Cerrone is essentially a rhythm striker who offers a diet of cracking low kicks, counter knees as his opponent changes levels, front kicks, beautifully timed and powerful kicks to the body and head, increasingly crisp combination punching and quick clinch entries.

He is also a much better wrestler than he gets credit for, with a quick knee-tap and double leg that he covers beautifully with his strikes; on the ground, he is venomous both with triangles and armbars from his back and passes and strikes from top position. There are two real problems with Cerrone’s game, though. First, like many muay Thai practitioners, he rarely moves his head off the centerline as he throws both punches and particularly kicks, which makes him much more hittable on the counter than he needs to be. Second, especially early in the fight, Cerrone is susceptible to pressure, which takes away the space and time he needs to establish his rhythm.

Likely because of his lack of a vocal, standout personality, Jury has flown much further under the radar than his skills merit. He is a fully three-dimensional fighter who can wrestle, grapple and strike with equal aplomb, but the best aspect of his game is his ice-cold approach and sterling ability to stick to the strategic game plans his coaches at Alliance MMA devise. Both his footwork and his movement are outstanding, giving him excellent angles from which to throw his potent, mechanically sound punches and consistent stream of kicks at all levels. He counters well and possesses excellent timing, with slick reactive takedowns as his opponents come forward and the phase-shifting instincts of an MMA native. Jury’s takedowns show excellent drive and technical finishes, and from the top, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt maintains a heavy base, suffocating pressure and a mixture of strikes and passes. At this point, he does not seem to have any real weaknesses, but he has yet to be tested by top-notch opposition.

BETTING ODDS: Cerrone (-210), Jury (+175)

THE PICK: Jury is a relatively unknown quantity to bettors and most fans, but he offers Cerrone a massive challenge. The Alliance MMA product is a viciously powerful counterpuncher, something with which Cerrone has struggled, and he sticks to his game plans better than just about any fighter in the UFC. The latter bit is important, because the blueprint for beating Cerrone -- pressure him to the fence and take away the space and time he needs to operate -- is clear; the problem is execution. I think Jury can counter Cerrone’s kicks, push him backward, work a few takedowns and some top control and win most of the fight before Cerrone finds his groove. The pick is Jury by close decision.

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