Jake Ellenberger has lost two straight for the first time in his career. | Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
WELTERWEIGHTS
Jake Ellenberger (29-8, 8-4 UFC) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (9-0, 4-0 UFC)After he wrecked Jake Shields and dominated Diego Sanchez, Ellenberger looked like the next big thing. Since then, however, his game has stagnated or even devolved, and he finds himself in a do-or-die position here. Ellenberger’s style revolves around his exceptional physical tools, namely his explosiveness and punching power, and features in-and-out movement punctuated by hard single shots. He blasts a lovely double-leg and can work good control and hard strikes from the top when the mood strikes him, though he is not much of a submission artist or high-level grappler. Essentially, he is a frontrunner, and if he lands his shots early in the fight, that confidence will carry him through into the later rounds. If he does not, Ellenberger has a tendency to crumble and lessen his already underwhelming offensive output.
Gastelum is one of the brightest young stars in the UFC. A high school wrestler, the rate with which the precocious youngster has broadened his game is remarkable and is likely a product of both hard work and his tremendous physical gifts. While Gastelum is still raw, his speed and power have melded well with a basic pressure game that features the occasional kick and vicious punching combinations from his southpaw stance when he finds the range. His defense is still a work in progress and his command of intricacies like rhythm and angles is relatively limited, but all of the building blocks are there. Wrestling, however, remains the core of Gastelum’s game. He shoots an explosive double with clean finishes and generally defends well, but he can be taken to the mat when he overextends in the striking and lets his opponent onto his hips. On the mat, Gastelum has a basic but effective passing game and does an excellent job of working positional advances and submissions in transition.
THE PICK: Only one thing about this fight is certain: If Ellenberger does not commit to throwing more strikes and generally producing more offense than he has in his last several outings, Gastelum will either take a decision on volume or land a big shot to put him to sleep. Bouncing around and throwing one or two punches at a time and shooting a couple of takedowns over the course of the fight will not get it done, and that seems to be the pattern to which Ellenberger has reverted. Frankly, I am not confident that Ellenberger is capable of doing anything but that, so Gastelum by decision is the pick.
Next Fight » Ricardo Lamas vs. Dennis Bermudez