Let It Reign: Handicapping UFC Champions

Biggest in-house threat: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Given the radically different matchup Lesnar faces in eventual challenger Shane Carwin, it might seem tempting to put Carwin here, given his one-punch power and impressive strength. But whereas Carwin has the physical strength to potentially match grappling with Lesnar, Nogueira is probably the only fighter in the division that may actually get more dangerous for Lesnar once the champion takes him down.

With a twice-flipped odometer and a score of memorable wars under his belt, Nogueira is as battle-tested as they come, and his sweeps and submissions, plus trademark toughness, could be the right mix to dethrone Lesnar, should he recover from his current health crisis. It could also turn into one of the more brutal beatings ever handed out in the sport, if Lesnar shows the stifling control and top game he displayed against Frank Mir at UFC 100.

Acquisition you’d love to see: Fedor Emelianenko.

Given their parallel title reigns in rival organizations, Emelianenko, who knocked out Brett Rogers earlier this month, might have missed his best chance at beating Lesnar by signing with Strikeforce. The Minnesota powerhouse continues to improve, and the window closes with each fight the two have. With Emelianenko’s two distance-going wins over Nogueira, the Brazilian would be a perfect comparative opponent for Lesnar, assuming he gets by Carwin in his next defense.

Also, Lesnar enjoys the rare privilege of being able to dictate where the fight will go, given his wrestling ability. If his stand-up continues to improve, he will put that much more of an advantage between himself and potential opponents.

Who will turn the trick? A big hitter, plain and simple. Outside of Nogueira, nobody in the UFC possesses the kind of submission credentials and guard to stop him once they are taken down. An imposing takedown artist might put Lesnar on his back and take him out of his element, but keeping him there could prove equally tough. Carwin has a shot at it.

Cain Velasquez looked tremendous in steamrolling Ben Rothwell, but considering how many times Rothwell and Cheick Kongo regained their feet against Velasquez, it becomes hard to see him controlling Lesnar in a pure wrestling sense. However, Velasquez has shown a busy ground-and-pound and has a good intuitive sense of how to strike downed opponents from almost any position. If he can suck Lesnar into a fast-paced, cardio-taxing battle, he could create problems for the champion.