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Middleweights
Kyle Daukaus (11-2, 2-2 UFC) vs. Roman Dolidze (9-1, 3-1 UFC)ODDS: Daukaus (-240), Dolidze (+195)
As with most Dolidze fights, this has the potential to be a strange one. Dolidze was just weird enough to work as a light heavyweight prospect upon coming to the UFC. The Georgian had a disjointed grab bag of skills, often centered around spinning strikes and heel hooks, but as a high-level athlete with seemingly unbreakable confidence, that figured to get him surprisingly far in a flawed division. However, after winning his first two UFC fights in 2020, 2021 saw Dolidze cut down to 185 pounds for a run that has been a mixed bag. His decision loss to Trevin Giles was a messy affair, and while he got the clear decision win over Laureano Staropoli in his most recent bout, it was a control-heavy encounter that ranks among the most unwatchable fights you will ever see. Who knows how that all works against Daukaus, who seems to have the opposite problem of a strong process getting held back by a lack of athleticism. Daukaus was a heavyweight early in his amateur days, and it shows. He has a large frame for the middleweight division and is obviously slow of foot. Still, the theory of how Daukaus’ game works is rock-solid, focused around constant pressure and bringing offense to his opponent in all phases, with a particular focus on grappling exchanges and hunting for submissions. Daukaus’ early 2021 loss to Phil Hawes was worrying in terms of his eventual ceiling—he figured to be able to exhaust Hawes but did not get much done while also hitting a physical wall—but his last fight, a quick February win over Jamie Pickett, was a nice reminder that Daukaus can easily dispatch a better athlete when given the skill advantage. It is unclear where on that spectrum Dolidze falls as an athlete with some obvious grappling skill but no real coherent approach, so there is about an even chance that he hangs with Daukaus throughout based on his natural ability versus him just making a bad decision and putting himself in danger. If there is anything to break the tie, Dolidze does seem to have trouble putting together 15 good minutes at the type of consistent pace that Daukaus is sure to bring, so that should be enough for the Philadelphian to take this late in the face of everything else. The pick is Daukaus via decision.
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