Rashad Evans needs a victory to earn a shot at the UFC light heavyweight title. | Photo: Sherdog.com
Phil Davis File Photo
Davis is 9-0.
Three well-matched bouts -- all with a reasonable chance to go the distance -- could eliminate the need for promotional filler this time around. Here is a closer look at the UFC on Fox 2 main card, with analysis and picks.
Light Heavyweights
Rashad Evans (16-1-1, 11-1-1 UFC) vs. Phil Davis (9-0, 5-0 UFC)
The Matchup: This fight was supposed to go down at UFC 133 but was postponed when Davis was forced to withdraw due to injury. Evans, in his first action in more than a year, was impressive in a second-round technical knockout victory against Tito Ortiz. When Ortiz took him down, he was able to get up or quickly shift into an advantageous position. The former light heavyweight champion controlled the majority of the contest with his speed, power and athleticism.
While Evans looked rejuvenated from the time spent with his new team at Imperial Athletics, it has been well documented that Ortiz is no longer near the top of the 205-pound heap. Davis has the type of physical tools and wrestling background that can give “Suga” fits, and it will likely take a carefully crafted game plan to overcome the four-time All-American wrestler from Penn State University.
Once regarded as the potential kryptonite to the dominance of current light heavyweight champion Jones, the enthusiasm surrounding Davis dimmed somewhat following his workmanlike triumph over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC Fight Night 24. The Alliance MMA product did what was necessary to get his hand raised, but it was not the type of blowout that would have instantly propelled him to No. 1 contender status. “Mr. Wonderful” struggled to secure takedowns against the Brazilian in the first half of their encounter, but, in switching from double-leg to single-leg attempts to eventually get Nogueira to the canvas, he showed the ability to adapt that should serve him well in the future. Davis’ superior strength and reach allows him to stay long and hold his opponents on the mat with his excellent wrestling. He will have similar advantages against Evans, but they will not be as pronounced as they have been in previous fights.
Evans is not exceptionally large for a light heavyweight, and that has hindered him in the past when he attempted to outmuscle foes to impose his own wrestling-based attack. “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 2 winner has grown smarter in his approach over the years, utilizing his speed in the standup to set up timely takedown attempts. Evans’ striking, along with his experience, will be his greatest assets here. While he does not generally land with great volume, his movement, speed and balance are formidable obstacles to overcome when combined with his one-shot power.
Davis has yet to display serious knockout ability, but he is adept at using punches and body kicks to set up his clinch work and explosive shots. In the clinch, “Mr. Wonderful” has shown a solid understanding of how to use multiple techniques to his advantage. Davis is not merely content to hold position on the ground, as he has shown good guard-passing skills and a desire to work for submission attempts.
Evans’ wrestling background should help him when it comes to getting to his feet -- because he will not win an extended ground battle with Davis. He will have to constantly move in and out of striking distance, taking advantage of his quickness to score points on the feet.
The Pick: They might not admit it, but UFC officials would like to see an Evans victory, so they can set up a ratings-friendly grudge match with Jones. It will not be easy, but if Evans uses a sound strategy and picks his spots, he can finally get the title shot he has been craving. Davis was tested by Nogueira, but he has yet to experience serious adversity in the cage. If he can keep the fight upright, Evans can take him there. Davis’ development is still a work in progress, while the time is now for Evans. Look for “Suga” to consistently beat Davis to the punch in earning a decision.
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