The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Preview

The avalanche of quality MMA continues with this Saturday’s “The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale,” which features an eclectic mix of established stars, fresh faces and maybe even a superstar in the making.

Hitting our optic nerves from the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, the main card features everything from a leg-kicking techno Viking to a Lifetime movie of the week turned professional face-puncher. No matter what you’re looking for from a night of dudes hitting each other on free television, this card has you covered.

All that’s left from now ‘til then is to get your knowledge right, and there is no better way to do that than with a fresh lineup of analysis, prognostication and occasional -- failed -- hilarity.

Matt Hamill vs. Keith Jardine

The doomsday clock on Jardine’s UFC career is getting perilously close to midnight after dropping three straight in the Octagon. Hamill’s standing in the light heavyweight division isn’t much better, though, as he’s fresh off taking a beating from Jon Jones and walking away with a hollow disqualification win.

To get back in the wildly competitive title race he was once a part of, Hamill will have to get inside on “The Dean of Mean.” Jardine is a crippling leg kicker with solid punching power who has always been dangerous at a distance, but his defensive deficiencies make him an easier mark in close quarters. Consecutive knockout losses to Thiago Silva and Ryan Bader are proof positive that Jardine’s unorthodox stance creates as many problems for himself as it does for his opponents.

For all the talk of Hamill’s wrestling, the fact is that he’s developed into a striker who uses his ground-and-pound as a plan B. Not a bad approach to have against Jardine, who has decent takedown defense but is easily caught off-guard with level changes during striking exchanges. What Hamill really needs to do, though, is find a home for the left hook.

No matter how many times he gets chin-checked with it, Jardine doesn’t seem to realize how open he leaves himself to the left hook and his opponents are starting to home in on that opening. Unless Jardine can keep Hamill at bay with leg kicks -- a tactic he has gotten away from lately -- it’s likely a matter of time before “The Hammer” smashes a hook into his jaw. Although Rich Franklin did have great success keeping Hamill at arm’s length in their bout, Jardine doesn’t have Franklin’s jab and he lacks the offensive diversity to make up for that.

Until Jardine fixes the holes in his defense, there is no reason to like his chances against anyone who can get inside on him and put together heavy punches. Hamill fits the bill on both fronts and has the added advantage of being able to ground Jardine if things get too dicey on the feet. This just isn’t a good style clash for Jardine. It’ll show when Hamill notches a second-round technical stoppage with -- what else? -- a left hook.