The Octagon lands in Tampa, Florida, on Saturday for the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s final event of 2024, and the promotion caps off the year with should be a decent show at Amalie Arena. The UFC on ESPN 63 main event has high stakes for the men involved: Colby Covington looks to prove he can still be considered a viable contender in the welterweight division, while Joaquin Buckley seeks a breakthrough win at 170 pounds. Meanwhile, an engaging co-headliner sees Cub Swanson back in action against Billy Quarantillo, and the most important bout on the draw might be the flyweight clash pitting Manel Kape against Bruno Silva in a division known for its wide-open nature. Finally, a bantamweight tilt between Andrian Yanez and Daniel Marcos should also be a must-see affair, as the UFC aims to punctuate its 2024 campaign with a strong finish.
Welterweights
#9 WW | Joaquin Buckley (20-6, 10-4 UFC) vs. #6 WW | Colby Covington (17-4, 12-4 UFC)ODDS: Buckley (-285), Covington (+230)
Covington came to the UFC as a blue-chip prospect about a decade ago, a pure grinder who generated a lot of success but little excitement until a win over Demian Maia in 2017. It was a turning point for “Chaos” in a few ways. It was Covington’s first pivot away from his wrestling and towards a pressure- and volume-heavy striking game that would pay a lot of dividends going forward, and it was also the debut of the outspoken persona that would seemingly make him a promotional favorite of the UFC. Covington tended to generate more annoyance than actual outrage, but attention was attention, and with that coming along with some exciting performances, he would eventually find himself challenging Kamaru Usman for the welterweight title to cap off 2019. It was an excellently matched fight pairing two former wrestling standouts who had become the two best fighters in their weight class, and the two surprisingly eschewed going to the mat, instead engaging in a fast-paced war on the feet that saw Usman score a knockout in the closing minute of the fight. While Covington has found success since, it doesn’t feel like he has ever truly recovered from that result. In his return bout against Tyron Woodley, Covington debuted a more tentative and range-focused striking approach that didn’t seem to be a good fit for his tools. Still, Woodley was past his prime enough that Covington managed to get a dominant win, and that led to the UFC booking a title rematch with Usman where neither man looked all that great. Usman appeared diminished from their first fight, while Covington’s newfound approach failed to find much success before he reverted to a worse version of his old style. Then Covington’s career essentially repeated itself, with a flat performance against a fading veteran—in this case Jorge Masvidal—earning him a lackluster performance in another title shot, this time against Leon Edwards. Frankly, Covington looked terrible for most of the fight, particularly in the first three rounds, where he was more tentative than ever. He eventually picked things up a bit and found some success in the championship rounds, but even that was partially thanks to Edwards’ own reticence to fight his best fight down the stretch. That figured to be the end of Covington’s relevance, and given that he at least has some intelligence in molding the direction of his career, it was unclear if any fight would have enough reward relative to its risk for him to return. As such, it’s a surprise to see him step in as a late replacement against Buckley, even if it is in a main event.
For a while, it looked like the clear peak of Buckley’s UFC career would be his 2020 knockout of Impa Kasanganay—a jumping spinning back kick that ranked among the best highlights the sport has ever produced. The UFC rightfully looked to jump on that momentum by booking Buckley as often as possible, which worked for a few months. Buckley would crush Jordan Wright shortly thereafter but wound up running into a knockout from Alessio Di Chirico. That result marked the end of Buckley’s hype, but he did rebound well and show why he was a solid middleweight prospect. His pressure-heavy approach could be reckless, but he showed an impressive ability to keep throwing power without ever showing a lag in cardio. Buckley eventually hit a firm plateau in 2022, with losses to Nassourdine Imavov and Chris Curtis, after which “New Mansa” announced his plans to cut down to 170 pounds—a move that has given his career new life. The same issues persist for Buckley, as he’s still a wild pressure fighter who can run himself into trouble, but he has kept all of his horsepower with this cut down in weight, to the point that those deficiencies don’t really seem to matter. Thus far in 2024, Buckley has consistently tried to make things happen against Vicente Luque, Nursulton Ruziboev and Stephen Thompson, and it has worked every time. Even after Thompson was able to outmaneuver the St. Louis native for the better part of two rounds, Buckley eventually caught and obliterated the former title challenger in Round 3. Given that, it’s unclear if Covington can successfully slow Buckley down for a full five-round fight. Covington is clearly the better wrestler even in this late-career form, but while Buckley’s blitzing approach will leave him open for takedowns, it’s unclear if his counterpart will even take that initiative; and given that Buckley has been more willing to wrestle since his move down to welterweight, there’s a chance that he can wind up on top of Covington simply through sheer horsepower. Past that, it’s also unclear how this version of Covington—one who’s as gun-shy as ever—will hold up against someone willing to stay aggressive and keep making the former title challenger work. The last opponent to fit that bill was probably Usman in their first fight, which was now half a decade ago, at which point Covington appeared to be a much sturdier fighter. It’s hard to entirely count Covington out here, since he has still been ridiculously tough inside of the cage and Buckley is an opponent with a lot of flaws. However, it’s also difficult to count on him surviving and thriving in five rounds of absolute hell at this point. The pick is Buckley via third-round stoppage.
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Covington vs. Buckley
Quarantillo vs. Swanson
Kape vs. Silva
Petrino vs. Jacoby
Marcos vs. Yanez
Stirling vs. Tokkos
The Prelims