Women's Strawweights
Amanda Lemos (14-3-1) vs. Virna Jandiroba (20-3)Odds: Jandiroba (-130), Lemos (+110)
The strawweight title picture is as wide open as ever in terms of potential future challengers for Weili Zhang, so a win here for Jandiroba could get her into a surprisingly strong position for a title shot. Jandiroba came to the UFC in 2019 with an undefeated resume against a high level of competition, though her late-notice UFC debut was a rude awakening; primarily a wrestler and grappler, Jandiroba got beat at her own game by former champion and divisional stalwart Carla Esparza. But "Carcara" recovered nicely; after submission wins over Mallory Martin and Felice Herrig allowed her to show off her skills, Jandiroba displayed a solid striking game even in some losses against much better athletes. Jandiroba hasn't been particularly dynamic now that she's facing better competition, but the progress she's made over the years has allowed her to surprisingly play spoiler again and again; she sold out on aggressive wrestling to swamp and neutralize Marina Rodriguez for an ugly decision win, and a fairly complete victory over Lupita Godinez proved she could hold her own against another strong wrestler.
Up next is Brazilian countrywoman and former title challenger Lemos in what should be an interesting clash of styles. Lemos was essentially a non-factor for her first two and a half years on the UFC roster; signed as a bantamweight in 2017, "Amandinha" lost her late-notice debut in one-sided fashion, failed a drug test and vanished as she served out her suspension. But she was a completely different fighter -- in a positive sense -- upon her return; now unrecognizable as a strawweight, Lemos was also now a complete powerhouse, capable of landing both knockout shots or simply strangling her opponents in close quarters. Lemos is able to win fights with big moments, though as with many fighters in a similar mold, her approach isn't exactly a round-winning style; Lemos makes good on the opportunities she's given, but left to her own devices she's content to coast out long stretches of inactivity that give her opponents the ability to steal rounds. It's also looking like her takedown defense is becoming a bit of a liability; Zhang wrestled early and often to a dominant title defense when she fought Lemos last August, and even Mackenzie Dern -- whose career has been marked by her frustrating unwillingness to wrestle -- was able to bank a lot of control time in a Lemos win this past February. Add in some spotty cardio, and that gives Jandiroba the opportunity to grind out an ugly win provided her durability holds up, since she's unlikely to get caught in Lemos' grappling game. There's such a clear athleticism gap that Lemos could end this fight at any moment with one punch, but while it won't be pretty to watch, the pick is Jandiroba via decision.
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Lemos vs. Jandiroba
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The Prelims