Middleweights
Sean Strickland (25-5) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (12-3)Odds: Imavov (-115), Strickland (-105)
Imavov keeps checking boxes as he looks to become a middleweight contender much quicker than initially expected. Born in Dagestan and fighting out of France, Imavov was a prospect with a ton of questions upon signing with the UFC in 2020; beyond a relatively weak level of competition save a victory over UFC vet Jonathan Meunier, Imavov had a low-output and opportunistic approach that figured to get exploited by better competition. Imavov won his UFC debut against Jordan Williams but couldn't find an opening to finish things against Phil Hawes in his sophomore UFC effort, suggesting that he would fall back into the middleweight pack in the short term. Instead, Imavov turned things around to have a breakout 2021 with second-round finishes of Ian Heinisch and Edmen Shahbazyan, surviving some early issues to turn things around and show some brutal close-range offense. Imavov’s lone fight of 2022 was also a positive step, as he took a decision from Joaquin Buckley on the UFC's debut card in Paris; if nothing else, it showed that Imavov can stay ahead for three rounds against an opponent that isn't easily finished or mentally broken. Imavov may still have some things to figure out - at its core, his style does rely on that opportunism rather than any sort of round-winning consistent pace - but at this point, he's more than earned an opportunity to move up the ladder. Initially slated to face Kelvin Gastelum in what looked like a solid chance at his highest-profile win to date, Imavov gets a bigger - but tougher - test than expected, as Sean Strickland steps in for a light heavyweight bout on less than a week's notice.
Strickland's had an interesting evolution after nearly a decade under the UFC banner. Strickland was a relatively nondescript prospect upon his UFC debut in 2014 but was able to leverage a surprising amount of pro experience given his youth into a spot at the fringes of the welterweight rankings. But the pivot point in Strickland's career came in the form of a major motorcycle accident in 2018, which forced him out of action for over two years; upon his return, Strickland had bulked up to a full-time middleweight and adopted a much different style. Formerly a quite patient and counter-heavy fighter with a penchant for wrestling, Strickland became much more of a pressure-oriented bully, using an upright stance but relying on his defensive vision to help him pour on pace and volume. That was enough to win wars of attrition during an impressive rise through the 185-pound ranks, but it's been a problem against the harder hitters near the top of the division; Strickland was stubborn enough to charge right into a knockout from Alex Pereira, and Jared Cannonier was able to separate himself as a harder hitter in the UFC's final fight of 2022. That does raise some worry four week later that Imavov can follow a similar blueprint; Imavov may not be a harder shot-for-shot hitter than Cannonier, but he's had much more of a knack for accurate strikes versus Cannonier's tendency to swing for the fences. But Imavov is much less proven as a five-round fighter and has often flagged by the end of his three-round fights, which is the main worry here. There are some potential traps for Strickland here—Imavov's accuracy could mean he finds a knockout blow early, and Imavov's cardio and output could be buoyed a fun by this fight moving up to 205 pounds - but the bet is that the American can survive some early trouble and win this clearly on pressure and output. The pick is Strickland via decision.
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Strickland vs. Imavov
Ige vs. Jackson
Soriano vs. Kopylov
Vieira vs. Pennington
Nurmagomedov vs. Barcelos
The Prelims