It has taken three years, but the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return to London should be worth the wait on Saturday at the O2 Arena. The promotion’s March trip to England became an annual tradition at a certain point, though it was also clearly an afterthought at times. The 2019 London card was strong for a UFC Fight Night, but other offerings were second-tier events that did not have much in the way of outside star power. Then came 2020, with the coronavirus pandemic scrapping the UFC’s entire schedule the week before it was scheduled to visit London. Given the long buildup and other current global events, it was nice to see UFC Fight Night 204 stay intact; again, there may not be much in terms of non-European oomph, but there is a new wave of English talent that appears ready to spring breakout performances at this show. In the top two bouts, Tom Aspinall and Arnold Allen find themselves in high-profile slots that could vault them into title contention in their respective weight classes; Aspinall looks to turn back heavyweight stalwart in Alexander Volkov in the main event, while Allen welcomes former lightweight contender Dan Hooker back to 145 pounds in the co-headliner. In terms of pure excitement, it is hard to beat Paddy Pimblett, who fights in the third spot from the top. Add in the return of Gunnar Nelson and two intriguing matchups to kick off the main draw, and this should provide some entertainment with the potential to serve as a launching pad for the next influx of British mixed martial artists.
Heavyweights
#6 HW | Alexander Volkov (34-9, 8-3 UFC) vs. #11 HW | Tom Aspinall (11-2, 4-0 UFC)ODDS: Volkov (-120), Aspinall (+100)
The heavyweight division is finally getting some fresh blood, and Aspinall is one of the prospects leading that charge. The Brit is still relatively untested, but he checks a ton of boxes as someone who can make an impact for years to come. He is a tall athlete, and with Aspinall having come from a grappling background and spent some time as a professional boxer, he has a level of well-rounded skill that is rare for fighters in the heavier divisions. More importantly than just having that skill, Aspinall knows how to correctly apply it, coming out aggressive from the jump. With his fast hands, that has usually been more than enough to quickly overwhelm and knock out most of his professional competition. The questions start when Aspinall gets dragged into deeper waters. None of his fights have lasted past nine minutes, and his lone UFC fight to last more than a round—a February 2021 win over Andrei Arlovski—was a mixed bag. Aspinall obviously tired once it became clear Arlovski was not going away quickly, but he had the wherewithal to completely pivot and pursue his wrestling in the second round, which led him to an impressively quick submission. At 28 years old, Aspinall still has many productive years ahead of him, and now is the time to test him. He gets a particularly tough challenge here in Volkov.
Volkov has not quite gotten over the hump to UFC title contention, but the former Bellator MMA champion has proven to be a reliable spoiler on the fringes of the championship picture during his time on the roster. At 6-foot-7, the Russian cuts an imposing figure, though “Drago” does not often maximize that frame against opponents willing and able to pressure him. At this point, Volkov usually does well relying on his impressive level of durability to win a war of attrition. That was how he beat Fabricio Werdum in 2018—a main event win that saw him earn true contender status—but that in turn led to what is likely the most frustrating loss of Volkov’s career, as he kept Derrick Lewis at bay for about 14 minutes before suffering a comeback knockout defeat in the closing moments. Volkov has suffered some more losses in the years since, but those were difficult matchups for the Russian from the jump. Curtis Blaydes is the rare wrestler consistent enough to keep Volkov down for the better part of 25 minutes, while Ciryl Gane was able to effectively fight him from range. The rest Volkov’s performances have been a mixed bag. He has clearly put on some mass since the Blaydes loss that gave him some extra power against Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem, but his last win over Marcin Tybura was an ugly affair that saw Volkov stay ahead on size and toughness rather than showing his usual level of skill. That means Aspinall might be facing Volkov at just the right time. If Volkov is finally feeling the effects of a long run in the sport, Aspinall has the type of speed and potency to score an early finish and start the Russian’s late-career slide. However, with Volkov still being so historically durable, this feels like a fight where he should be able to survive the early going, at which point the slippage is more worrying from an entertainment standpoint than anything else. A younger Volkov would clearly be able to close the show once Aspinall starts to tire, but this version may be content to coast to a plodding verdict. Perhaps this provides some excitement no matter the winner, but the pick is Volkov via ugly decision.
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