Order Now! UFC 302 "Makhachev vs. Poirier" Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Now to the UFC 302 “Makhachev vs. Poirier” preview:
UFC Lightweight Championship
#1 P4P | Islam Makhachev (25-1, 14-1 UFC) vs. #4 LW | Dustin Poirier (30-8, 22-7 UFC)ODDS: Makhachev (-650), Poirier (+470)
It took a while, but it seems like Makhachev is finally his own man as a potential all-time great. For most of Makhachev’s career, he was discussed in the context of being the close friend and training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov, particularly after a knockout loss to Adriano Martins in 2015 robbed him of the same unbeatable aura that benefited his mentor. As Nurmagomedov lorded over the lightweight division, funneling opponent after opponent into his crushing wrestling game, Makhachev quietly toiled away with what felt like a less spectacular version of the same style. Given that Makhachev isn’t quite the same level of elite athlete as Nurmagomedov, he would have to get things done with a bit less dominant control and a bit more technical skill. Once Nurmagomedov surprisingly retired in 2020, it was time for Makhachev to get his promotional push as a potential replacement, and he more than lived up to the task. Makhachev kept up the most active schedule of his UFC career and discovered his craft as a finisher, blowing through the opposition until a one-sided win over Charles Oliveira in 2022 crowned the Russian as the king of the lightweight division. The tenor of the moment centered on Makhachev’s win as a continuation of the Nurmagomedov legacy, and he immediately set his sights on fighting Alexander Volkanovski, who had looked unbeatable as featherweight champion and was running out of challengers. The UFC put the fight together, and the result was an all-timer of a bout in which each man operated at an elite level. Volkanovski proved surprisingly able to hold up to Makhachev’s wrestling game, but the Russian showed a new level as a striker to gut out the narrow decision. The initial plan for Makhachev’s next title defense was a rematch against Oliveira, but Volkanovski wound up stepping up to the plate on about a week and a half’s notice, which makes the end result of their rematch a double-edged sword. Makhachev looked excellent in breaking Volkanovski down and knocking him out within a round, but the late notice does lend a bit of questioning to the proceedings. At any rate, Makhachev looks like one of the best fighters in the sport at the moment, with his own adaptable variation on the Nurmagomedov style. It’s now finally time for him to fight a full-time lightweight and one of Nurmagomedov’s former challengers in Poirier, who looks to cash in on one last shot here.
Order Now! UFC 302 "Makhachev vs. Poirier" Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Poirier has been beloved for years, as it has been over a decade since what feels like his true breakout—a 2012 war against Chan Sung Jung back when “The Diamond” was a featherweight prospect. For the next half decade, Poirier had a well-earned reputation as one of the most exciting fighters in the sport, even though that occasionally served as his downfall. Poirier has always loved to throw down, and that aggression would seemingly walk him into a knockout just as he was on the verge of putting together some real momentum. A 2017 decision win over Jim Miller was the first sign that Poirier was tempering his need for violence with some much-needed patience, and that blossomed into his becoming one of the best lightweights in the sport. Victories over Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Max Holloway kept up Poirier’s legacy of entertaining fights, only now with enough control for him to score the biggest wins of his career. A loss to Nurmagomedov in a 2019 title fight was a bit deflating, partially thanks to Poirier starting the running bit of him jumping on ill-advised guillotine chokes. However, his career rebounded in surprisingly strong fashion. After an excellent win over Dan Hooker in 2020, Poirier was the beneficiary of two clear victories over Conor McGregor that elevated him into legitimate star status. After another championship loss, this time against Oliveira to cap off 2020, it seemed like Poirier was settling into more of an action fighter emeritus role than part of the championship picture, particularly after a knockout loss to Gaethje in July. Instead, Poirier is the latest title challenger to benefit from simply being available at the right time. Gaethje figured to be the top contender until he got knocked out by Holloway in April, allowing Poirier—fresh off a win over Benoit St. Denis in March—to jump the line and get what might be the last title shot of his career. There’s definitely the chance for Poirier to get a legacy-defining win, particularly if he can stay patient enough to get Makhachev to lead. Poirier’s success can be mixed when he’s forced to fill empty space—Gaethje’s own newfound patience was the deciding factor between losing their first fight and winning their second—but the St. Denis fight proved he’s still at his best letting his opponents wade into close range and answering their offense in a firefight. Of course, that St. Denis fight also showed that Poirier is still needlessly focused on guillotine chokes, an amusing running joke but something that would once again spell certain doom here. It’s not a guarantee that Poirier even gets the type of fight where he has the opportunity for a win, particularly as Makhachev continues to show his status as an excellent game planner, but even if he does, it’s hard to trust the challenger to fight the perfect fight that he needs. The pick is Makhachev via first-round submission.
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