The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will make its way to Salt Lake City for a second straight year when it touches down at the Delta Center for a second straight year. No matter how seriously you take the stakes of the symbolic BMF title, it is difficult not to get excited for the UFC 291 main event—a rematch between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Their 2018 battle was eminently enjoyable, and the two men have only sharpened their craft in the years since. The co-headliner sees Alex Pereira attempt to crash the title picture in a second division, as the former middleweight champion takes on onetime light heavyweight titleholder Jan Blachowicz up at 205 pounds. Add in some excellent welterweight bouts—Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira and Kevin Holland vs. Michael Chiesa—and this should be worth the price of admission.
Lightweights
#2 LW | Dustin Poirier (29-7, 21-6 UFC) vs. #3 LW | Justin Gaethje (24-4, 7-4 UFC)ODDS: Poirier (-150), Gaethje (+130)
Poirier and Gaethje meet in this rematch of a 2018 barnburner, and it is fun to look back and see exactly how much things have changed for both men in the years since. The win over Gaethje was a turning point for Poirier, as it marked the culmination of years of hard work to move from elite action fighter into a championship-level competitor. Poirier a was must-watch attraction as a featherweight with a “Fight of the Year” contender against Chan Sung Jung under his belt, but a 2015 move up to lightweight seemed to unlock a new level for “The Diamond,” who was suddenly able to up the pace and pressure and run through his opposition. However, Poirier ran into a quick Michael Johnson knockout just as it looked like he was on the cusp of contention, and the next few years came with some obvious growing pains. Poirier was still a winning fighter but would openly discuss his intent to take a more cautious and thoughtful approach, only to wind up engaging in a brawl against opponents willing to turn up the heat. That made the dynamic heading into the fight against Gaethje fairly clear. The American Top Team star would likely start off as the more technical martial artist, but Gaethje’s status as one of the most aggressive fighters in the sport figured to eventually find a point where Poirier could be lured into a self-defeating war. That turn never came, though. Poirier finally found his balance of intelligent violence and slowly wore Gaethje down over the course of three rounds before finishing him in the fourth. In the years since, Poirier has essentially checked all the boxes, save for actually winning the championship, as he fell short against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira in his two shots at the title. He has come out ahead in a big-money feud against Conor McGregor and engaged in “Fight of the Year” contenders against Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler, all while generally establishing himself as one of the most beloved figures in the sport. While Islam Makhachev is not a particularly advantageous matchup for Poirier, the Louisianan is still a fresh contender for a new lightweight champion, so another win over Gaethje could set him up for one more shot at glory.
Heading into the first fight against Poirier, Gaethje was still in the last vestiges of trying to make his classic approach work; it was hard to argue with, given the previous results. A former collegiate wrestler, “The Highlight” essentially ignored that part of his game completely in lieu of marching down opponents and leaning on his durability—and some perfunctory defense—to win wars of attrition via knockout. That saw Gaethje through an undefeated run as lightweight champion in World Series of Fighting, and his UFC debut against Michael Johnson set the tone for what to expect going forward. As with a lot of Gaethje’s fights, both men had their moments of near-finishes, but the Arizona native was the one left standing once the madness cleared. However, it became apparent that Gaethje would have to change something once he hit the lightweight elite. Eddie Alvarez was able to outmaneuver him ahead of becoming the first man to eventually crack Gaethje’s unbreakable chin—a blueprint that Poirier was able to follow in his own breakout win. Gaethje rebounded well enough without having to change much. Wins over James Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone were just reminders of Gaethje’s potency against everyone but the absolute top tier of the division, but a 2020 victory over Tony Ferguson in the UFC’s return from the coronavirus pandemic showed the first seeds of his pivoting to some new ideas. To be clear, Gaethje is still an absolute madman willing to march through hell for a brutal victory, but he is now doing so a lot more patiently, usually leaving it to his opponent to close the distance and absorb what he throws in return rather than force the issue and leave himself more open defensively. There is a sense that classic Gaethje may have fared better in his two shots at the title against Nurmagomedov and Oliveira, each quick losses, but it is also a change that likely benefited him in his all-timer win over Michael Chandler in 2021 and his March victory over Rafael Fiziev, which saw him achieve his best balance to date in the latter stages of the fight. It also makes this rematch against Poirier a lot closer on paper than what their first fight wound up as in practice. Giving Poirier the initiative might be a dangerous idea, in general, but it also prevents him from exploiting the types of defensive gaps that were opened by Gaethje’s previous focus on aggression. This is essentially a coinflip, and in a fight that is likely going to come down to a series of relatively even striking changes, Gaethje gets the nod as a harder shot-for-shot hitter who could also—forbid the thought—possibly pivot to some re-emerging wrestling skills if things start to go south. This should live up to its potential “Fight of the Year” billing while also being a strategic affair. The pick is Gaethje via decision.
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Poirier vs. Gaethje
Blachowicz vs. Pereira
Thompson vs. Pereira
Green vs. Ferguson
Holland vs. Chiesa
The Prelims